Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?
This contract is priced at 3¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 3¢ bid, 3¢ ask, 0¢ spread.
Implied probability
Event outcomes
15
Family volume
$4.8M
Best sibling
Microsoft 0¢
Ticker
0xc6176e61…78da
Market snapshot
OpenAI in market context.
This page tracks the Polymarket contract for Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?. The displayed quote is 3¢ from the latest venue quote. The cached market record reports 24h volume of $19K. In the Which company has the best AI model end of May? family, this outcome ranks #3 of 15 by current quote across 15 sibling outcomes. The indicator bundle was refreshed May 9, 2026, 6:38 AM UTC.
Outcome
OpenAI
Family rank
#3 of 15
Venue
Polymarket
Current quote
3¢
Quote source
Latest venue quote
Timing
Listed until May 31, 2026
24h volume
$19K
Family context
15 outcomes · Which company has the best AI model end of May?
Quote range
0¢-77¢
Family leader
Anthropic 77¢
Last updated
May 9, 2026, 6:38 AM UTC · 9m ago
Venue identifier: 0xc6176e61dc008476c102b63a254d228a19a131c7d209a22444b9c4c7132f78da. Family volume: $4.8M.
Price history
3¢ current
−1¢Orderbook snapshot
3 / 3¢
Contract terms
Resolution, venue, and identifiers.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
May 31, 2026
Identifier
0xc6176e61…78da
Event family
Which company has the best AI model end of May.
This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.
Total volume
$4.8M
Outcomes
15
Highest price
Anthropic 77¢
Current share
10%
OpenAI
polymarket · 0xc6176e61dc008476c102b63a254d228a19a131c7d209a22444b9c4c7132f78da
Microsoft
polymarket · 0x5e480f7d99f1e1bf935f76ea892cfeb1ee464c8f3408f5cea7030f08e06f6033
ByteDance
polymarket · 0x0b99db8f92b92a3c4662add13aabfa682190b8afc3734f36813b406ae717837e
xAI
polymarket · 0xf606d64b93ebae1c5c2aabc2ad1f533135ce6c6c264482be1566f8b0d8f8e570
Amazon
polymarket · 0xbe020093c5ec05d2bd11eb52bf06415dc0d12eab6f2adb2eaa97c1bf7d4fb4e3
Anthropic
polymarket · 0x5072d0bf27763754b734c63255c4cbbba79d9d09b214accf33ecc79b88b1d108
Mistral
polymarket · 0xf91e1f10742dddac47ccdb01ac5df6bcc2f73d7dcca6f39786616c6fd549c373
polymarket · 0x2ae22e1fd29651ed6f049114672a0be94b907e833485a7a6d0c7df2dc7f03ce9
Meta
polymarket · 0x4fa64c6074aeea243e35fae0e255e4d10ebe2799a4016228ce95f66516b82b15
Baidu
polymarket · 0x3826c50637b2427a0b3e13ac0034aec1d2599cb4b4ee073760a019d08047da1a
Meituan
polymarket · 0x02ea1de2b24d0036f6bdfc08c9f817e0491235309f45801b876018d974e67234
Moonshot
polymarket · 0x61b7e4721f18a14f6ff28511eb7f00ffd47559b345c36e627a4f7a05c6e11c53
DeepSeek
polymarket · 0xdf6a08eacf8a61b960a0af7dd7ba8b95a934a49f6761208c7dadddb1a375c1ab
Alibaba
polymarket · 0x5df034278e17309e77469a84a90591163c9a5ea900d0976ab4053813131d3680
Z.ai
polymarket · 0xfe82129f625488bb6a26b424a4fb977b8c390d4b91e3647cdc59b7e8ef5694f1
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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