Will Mistral be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?
This contract is priced at 0¢ midpoint on Polymarket. Current book: 0¢ bid, 0¢ ask, 0¢ spread.
Implied probability
Event outcomes
9
Family volume
$43K
Best sibling
None in 2026 54¢
Ticker
0xa1c9cfea…9313
Price history
0¢ current
Orderbook snapshot
0 / 0¢
Contract terms
Resolution, venue, and identifiers.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market. If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026". If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
0xa1c9cfea…9313
Event family
Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026.
This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.
Total volume
$43K
Outcomes
9
Highest price
None in 2026 54¢
Current share
7%
Mistral
polymarket · 0xa1c9cfeae7485998351b99d7c1297a6aa0d3a90f1757e3436c71ba047d039313
None in 2026
polymarket · 0x2f2c1c9fb95be15c18394b3ac9ba6431ccffda7a383d08d7ab7379330e0fecaf
OpenAI
polymarket · 0xff51f2c13120c22abe5781c21a2bb4dc81a8013c38b2dd472b634cad6c8ac53b
polymarket · 0xc48b0f7896658f9ebb8e3d58202bb1b4e756bb69af6bd64bc4ffd0c7e82aa64c
Anthropic
polymarket · 0x57678b4114e42eab8bb5858ee3d20b54ab3b55c18344ffcb8156e78b2066f448
xAI
polymarket · 0xa872761e9ce30c1618039af7bcd168da16a97502441739276e485b214f3f847e
DeepSeek
polymarket · 0x66ac2e679490cd3d3b3f62661d7ce7f57ff1eadabd316e7f2372fdfeab490485
Alibaba
polymarket · 0xb5574c0e233906ecd6dd2c9c3e309509124aa864f6f6a793e70c39b98efb0558
Z.ai
polymarket · 0x25d1a9d23e1bb0a8e6bf8c89e36bac306f5a348a4bf5e64729d8889053381c98
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
scientific
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