Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?

The 40¢ price implies a 60% probability that some company will reach 1550 on Chatbot Arena by year-end 2026, suggesting the market views this threshold as moderately achievable despite the asymmetric 211.6% implied yield on the "No" side indicating significant underpricing relative to the "Yes" position. With only $3,139 in open interest and zero 24-hour volume, this market suffers from severe illiquidity that likely explains the wide 3¢ spread and elevated 184% realized volatility, making it difficult to assess true conviction. The neutral regime score (0.409) and modest 0.5/h information arrival rate suggest limited recent catalyst activity, though the market has only drifted 1¢ over seven days, indicating relatively stable pricing despite the thin order book.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market. If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026". If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.

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