Will Donald Trump visit Oman in 2026?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and a wide 12¢ spread despite modest $2.2k open interest, suggesting the 16¢ price may not reflect true consensus. The astronomical 750% implied yield on the "Yes" side combined with 2901% realized volatility and a 11.28 vol ratio indicates wild price swings—the contract has moved from 23¢ to 17¢ over seven days—making this more of a speculative venue than a reliable probability estimate. With 256 days to expiry and a neutral regime, the market appears thinly traded and potentially mispriced, though the high information arrival rate (7.6/hour) suggests active discussion that hasn't yet translated into meaningful volume.

Resolution rules

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits a listed country between January 1 and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, the relevant market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Indicators

Regime

Trade