Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026

30-day trend

Analysis

This represents the aggregated betting market's assessment that Donald Trump will visit China at some point during 2026. At 94%, the contracts suggest traders view such a visit as highly probable, though not certain. The high confidence likely reflects Trump's stated interest in direct engagement with China on trade and geopolitical issues, combined with his pattern of high-profile international travel. Key factors driving this include ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations, Trump's historical willingness to meet with Chinese leadership, and the absence of major diplomatic breakdown suggesting a visit would be ruled out. The probability could shift significantly based on trade war escalation, sanctions, or announced diplomatic freezes. Resolution depends on confirmation of any Trump visit to China occurring before December 31, 2026, making calendar year-end the implicit deadline for this contract settlement.

• ›Trump's publicly stated interest in engaging directly with China on trade and strategic issues, versus his historical pattern of high-profile summits with major powers
• ›Current state of U.S.-China diplomatic relations and trade negotiations throughout 2026, including any announced summits or official visit schedules
• ›Contrasting market prices on other destinations (France at 90%, Turkey at 69%, Germany at 51%) suggest China is viewed as distinctly more likely than European visits
• ›The contract's multi-outcome winner-take-all structure means only one country's visit counts as settlement, creating competitive dynamics between options
• ›Any formal announcement of Trump's international travel schedule or confirmed calendar commitments through end of 2026

What moved the line

• May 31Turkey↑12pp70→82¢ · Polymarket
• Jun 1Ireland↓10pp53→43¢ · Polymarket
• Jun 3Pakistan↓9pp30→21¢ · Polymarket
• Jun 2Lebanon↑8pp5→13¢ · Polymarket
• Jun 1North Korea↓7pp20→13¢ · Polymarket

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds