SimpleFunctions

Lebanon · Which countries will recognize Israel by June 30

Lebanon is priced at 3¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 1¢ bid, 4¢ ask, 3¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 15 inside Which countries will recognize Israel by June 30?.

Open on PolymarketView JSONEnter terminal

Price history

3¢ current

−1¢
0¢10¢
May 7, 2026Jun 5, 2026

Contract brief

This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Israel as a state between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Outcome

Lebanon

Rank

#1 of 15

Leader

Lebanon 3¢

Range

1¢-3¢

Family volume

$416K

Identifier

0x274cec20...6732

Jun 6, 2026, 6:38 AM UTC · 2m ago

Implied probability

3¢
Latest venue quote
Jun 6, 2026, 6:38 AM UTC · 2m ago

Bid

1¢

Ask

4¢

Spread

3¢

Reported volume

$67K

Family rank

#1 of 15

15 outcomes · Which countries will recognize Israel by June 30?

Closes

—

Family volume

$416K

Orderbook snapshot

1 / 4¢

Polymarket
3¢ spread
BidSize
100¢1.0K
100¢518
100¢62
100¢135
100¢1.0K
100¢550
100¢20
0¢16K
AskSize
4¢50
4¢60
5¢34
5¢196
5¢1.3K
6¢100
9¢235
10¢500

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Israel as a state between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Venue

Polymarket

Closes

—

Identifier

0x274cec20…6732

SF Signal
SF Index
16580.94
Regime
neutral

Event family

Which countries will recognize Israel by June 30.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$416K

Outcomes

15

Highest price

Lebanon 3¢

Current share

16%

OutcomePriceVolume24hDepth

Lebanon

polymarket · 0x274cec202608757e62a0cf64ec63a3a814a6cc23a1bff1819b437362c5c16732

3¢
$67K$00.7

Indonesia

polymarket · 0x7ac4ee6cc36a676667e3e1cb807b15a09fe2ef9761703cad531fa6a49359d312

3¢
$17K$00.3

Qatar

polymarket · 0x3e4f06223a50d6e551ce3bfbb2ca5861b4b08a4db8f35b6ed03530cf427c8c09

3¢
$7K$01.0

Malaysia

polymarket · 0x84872ef509e8c16de463f534bbbc8233291073c9d1a6adeebf6cb34bfe83f75e

2¢
$26K$0—

Afghanistan

polymarket · 0x2cb2e201c613cc950599f8d440315a3125f6a3679f41f798ada974387f0a7ac5

2¢
$18K$0—

Syria

polymarket · 0xdf5191450300fdcb365d50bcc82acf0e67c851d4c894b76d63fb5f8613b10f1f

2¢
$14K$0—

Bangladesh

polymarket · 0x32711a62e5210aa2a770358c0d7762c26c7b39c1a169d10543675f26f1952435

2¢
$3K$0—

Tunisia

polymarket · 0xfec12b13c5859c51949fefd5fc1896e3d94e808244f3d068de5350f94308ada9

2¢
$2K$7—

Kuwait

polymarket · 0x3721f5c052eae0a8a5c98704cc30e723cbc30526e97b2e9ac9cf80440b4c5723

2¢
$2K$63—

Venezuela

polymarket · 0xfd0c9092cd2b2059c1487de5fc2145f19702d314039a8d10df55d206d08058f1

1¢
$88K$4—

Cuba

polymarket · 0x5e6e46f7c9756170e4ba436c82079e0173541442943eadbc9732192fb5e7ee03

1¢
$51K$200—

Saudi Arabia

polymarket · 0xc806bda841f56b4343b6af7b3cde2288cfd0fdd325aeaef7bedce847ea77d075

1¢
$40K$0—

North Korea

polymarket · 0x87481d5929f101b77c7f7a0bfc899df03c9c4d3773bba061846feb68dc08e290

1¢
$37K$0—

Iraq

polymarket · 0x344a8fae463bbcd52cba6f4f0ba388518b24115c8423f3158ae60eac98282e57

1¢
$35K$511—

Pakistan

polymarket · 0x366e277d574453c39bdded2dc4763a388b5e3b1b9c36cb3d12ce2ccd3e5925f7

1¢
$9K$0—

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

49747.8%

IY (No)

47.6%

Adj IY

16581%

CRI

32

RV

3442%

VR

1.13

Regime

neutral

Score

0.409

Observability

medium

Event type

political

Full indicator table

IY (Yes)
49747.8%
IY (No)
47.6%
Adj IY
16581%
CRI
32
RV
3442%
VR
1.13
IAR
0.5/h
Overround
-0.9%
LAS
0.67

Odds pages

Related prediction questions

Browse odds

Which countries will recognize Israel by June 30

Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30

Which countries will conduct military action against Iran by April 30?: UAE

Related readings

Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.

Browse library
Blogmarkets

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?

In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.

Opinionanalysis

Information Finance Has Arrived: A Material Map of Prediction Markets in Q2 2026

Combined Kalshi + Polymarket volume hit $66B in just four months of 2026 — already greater than the entire 2025 industry total. Bernstein projects $1T by 2030. Two venues hold 95% of US share. The distribution layer fragmented across nine retail surfaces. AI agents are 30% of Polymarket wallet activ

Opinioncomparison

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)

Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.

Conceptmethodology

Resolution Risk Premium: Pricing the Rule, Not the Outcome

When the resolution rule is fuzzy, the price is the market's estimate of how the rule will be interpreted, not the outcome's probability. Three case studies and the discount math.

Conceptmethodology

Maker / Taker Regime in Prediction Markets: How to Read the Orderbook State

Three regime states (maker-dominated, taker-dominated, neutral) and how to read which one a Kalshi or Polymarket contract is in. Strategy follows regime, not thesis.

Blogmacro

US Recession 2025? What 1% Prediction Market Odds Get Right—and Wrong—About the Cycle

Prediction markets put 2025 US recession odds near 1%, while yield curves, economic indicators, and institutional forecasts point to much higher risk. This deep dive compares market pricing to historical base rates, Federal Reserve policy, and forecasting models to see if investors are underpricing recession risk.

SimpleFunctions context

Index, screen, query, and monitor.

Open index

Prediction Market Index

Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.

Market Screener

Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.

Event Probability API

Read 3% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.

Realtime Data API

Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.

World State API

Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.

Hedging Workflows

Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.