Which countries will conduct military action against Iran by April 30?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 26% across 13 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
26%
13 contracts
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1K
13 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
206 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 13 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 8% of their title tokens — “Which countries” vs “How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Which countries
Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?: Turkey
0xebb9a8…1f30
Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?: Germany
0x77abd7…e524
Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?: Japan
0xbff26f…8df0
Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?: Ukraine
0x89522d…bd43
Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?: European Union
0xdb3df0…500f
Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?: Taiwan
0x4eea50…1214
Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?: Greece
0xecf32b…4bde
Which countries will recognize Israel by June 30?: Lebanon
0x274cec…6732
Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?: The Netherlands
0x759cea…e4df
Cluster 2
How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026
How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?: 10
0x30a1d6…1b86
How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?: 9
0x5759fb…f692
How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?: 8
0x713ab2…dfda
How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?: 11
0x4fa0df…b39a
What moved the line
- May 31Turkey↑12pp70→82¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 1Greece↓8pp22→14¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 310↓7pp18→11¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 410↑6pp11→17¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 4Turkey↑6pp87→93¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in iran
- Will Iran Play in the 2026 FIFA World Cuplast 97% · 2d
- Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?: 80+last 9% · 4d
- Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of May?: 0-10last 96% · 4d
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of Maylast 3% · 4d
- Will USD hit ___ Iranian rials by May 31?: ↓ 1.5Mlast 40% · 5d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in iran.
In iran
Related reading
Iran Peace Deal Odds Collapse as June Deadlines Loom
The probability of a US-Iran permanent peace deal by June 30 dropped 6 cents to 17%, and by July 31 fell 11 cents to 28%. This swift repricing reflects increased skepticism that the parties can reach an agreement in the near term, putting upward pressure on oil risk premium. The 'No Meeting by June 30' contract for US-Iran diplomatic meetings jumped to 67 cents.
Iran Diplomatic Hopes Fade: Peace Deal and Nuclear Contract Odds Slide
The probability of a US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30 crashed 15 points to 24%, and odds on a permanent peace deal by the same date fell below 25%. Oil markets are pricing in sustained geopolitical risk.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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