Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30
Leader sits at 92% across 12 bound outcomes, runner-up at 63%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Turkey
Outcomes
12
winner-take-all
Runner-up
63¢
Germany
Spread
29pp
contested
24h volume
$324
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2031
1670 days
Cross-venue
K2+P10
22pp gap
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 50¢ · Polymarket 28¢ · 22pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (28¢, 10 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (50¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Which countr
Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?: United States
KXMOONMAN-31-USA
Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?: China
KXMOONMAN-31-PRC
Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?: The Netherlands
0x759cea…e4df
Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?: Turkey
0xebb9a8…1f30
Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?: Germany
0x77abd7…e524
Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?: Ukraine
0x89522d…bd43
Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?: European Union
0xdb3df0…500f
Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?: Israel
0x9121e5…edf0
Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?: Taiwan
0x4eea50…1214
Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?: Greece
0xecf32b…4bde
Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?: Japan
0xbff26f…8df0
Which countries will recognize Israel by June 30?: Lebanon
0x274cec…6732
What moved the line
- May 31Turkey↑12pp70→82¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 1Greece↓8pp22→14¢ · Polymarket
- May 31United States↑6pp50→56¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 4Turkey↑6pp87→93¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 3Japan↑6pp34→40¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in iran
- Will Iran Play in the 2026 FIFA World Cuplast 97% · 0d
- Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?: 80+last 9% · 2d
- Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of May?: 0-10last 96% · 2d
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of Maylast 3% · 3d
- Will USD hit ___ Iranian rials by May 31?: ↓ 1.5Mlast 40% · 3d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in iran.
In iran
Related reading
Iran Diplomatic Hopes Fade: Peace Deal and Nuclear Contract Odds Slide
The probability of a US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30 crashed 15 points to 24%, and odds on a permanent peace deal by the same date fell below 25%. Oil markets are pricing in sustained geopolitical risk.
Iran Peace Deal Odds Slide as Tensions Persist
The probability of a US-Iran permanent peace deal by June 30 dropped 4¢ to 24¢, while the chance of Iran closing its airspace rose. Traders should monitor Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization contracts for oil price implications.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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