The Netherlands · Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027
The Netherlands is priced at 16¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 15¢ bid, 16¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #4 of 10 inside Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?.
Price history
16¢ current
+3¢Contract brief
This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Palestine as a state by December 31, 2026, 11:59pm ET. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Palestine will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Outcome
The Netherlands
Rank
#4 of 10
Leader
Belgium 28¢
Range
6¢-28¢
Family volume
$715K
Identifier
0x759ceaf5...e4df
Jun 7, 2026, 11:08 PM UTC · 25m ago
Implied probability
Bid
15¢
Ask
16¢
Spread
1¢
Reported volume
$55K
Family rank
#4 of 10
10 outcomes · Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Family volume
$715K
Orderbook snapshot
15 / 16¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Palestine as a state by December 31, 2026, 11:59pm ET. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Palestine will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
0x759ceaf5…e4df
Cross-venue match
Similar contract on kalshi at 10¢, +6¢ versus this page.
Event family
Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$715K
Outcomes
10
Highest price
Belgium 28¢
Current share
8%
Belgium
polymarket · 0xd95a7d857f0c05108465c639a2e0643f94b52ed81c9bd08f1b6d20816a91d850
New Zealand
polymarket · 0x632131499208f242ade89e799edcf76965fea513e3c26c6f36e1b575f9007d68
Italy
polymarket · 0xd904f952c9b101184dda166e40c76268e5bbb68286d6514999f661eb5dd6e2f5
The Netherlands
polymarket · 0x759ceaf5eb99bed7eed8a42ad74593a25d6114c88b0475df5e2dba7ad155e4df
Greece
polymarket · 0xecf32b871ad1ab9ca961ce1a12d5758c59b07bdcb99f649a1dbe3f07e7cb4bde
Finland
polymarket · 0xec00994dcf039406b7a19e344a47ccadfe523d92feb1ac1661b71c065e87866b
Japan
polymarket · 0x528fbd8194e1aa1f094589a02f18477b0edd7c4fb413140774a781d847972869
United States
polymarket · 0x0acc45f7c62722af4ad639a0e1b08dd324d83a1d728d20f3cdeefd39375aa7f3
Austria
polymarket · 0x21ce0ae1b82299b300f53d22a9971dfef63346a0b8962232a7248eadb48bd39c
Germany
polymarket · 0xc29194f3f96257d0e230310dc9ecd4258da318223174499451f8f3c29cecf9b3
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
political
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.