Will light appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31?

This market shows extreme illiquidity and volatility despite over two years until expiration, with a massive 59¢ spread and only $20 in 24-hour volume against $195K open interest—suggesting thin order books and potential pricing inefficiency. The 179% implied yield on the Yes side is notably elevated for such a distant resolution date, while the 1672% realized volatility and 11.64 vol ratio indicate wild price swings disconnected from fundamental information (4.0 info arrivals per hour is modest). The recent 6¢ price decline from 51¢ to 45¢ combined with neutral regime conditions suggests this is a speculative, low-conviction market where the guest appearance likelihood remains genuinely uncertain.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a new episode of the UpOnly podcast featuring the specified guest is publicly released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” “Released” means the full episode is published and available to the general public on an official UpOnly platform (e.g. YouTube, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or the show’s official feed). Previews, clips, teasers, or promotional material do not count toward resolution. The resolution source will be the official UpOnly podcast channels and/or a consensus of credible public reporting.

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Regime

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