Will Bernie endorse Zach Wahls for IA-Sen Nov 2 2026 ET?

This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 457.8% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 56.5% on the No side, suggesting strong conviction among No holders despite modest 26¢ pricing. The 625% realized volatility and 2.83 vol ratio indicate this is a highly speculative contract with minimal liquidity ($9,542 open interest, zero 24h volume), making the price potentially unreliable and vulnerable to outsized moves. With 227 days to resolution and a neutral regime, the market appears to be pricing in a low but non-negligible probability of a Sanders endorsement for this Iowa Senate race, though the illiquidity and extreme yield skew warrant caution on position sizing.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the candidate Bernie Sanders announces that he will vote for or endorses for the listed election. If Bernie Sanders does not announce an endorsement by the day before the scheduled election at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Bernie Sanders or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Bernie Sanders' endorsement.

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