Will Bernie Sanders endorse Antonio Delgado in the 2026 New York gubernatorial election before Nov 3, 2026
Leader sits at 52% across 8 bound outcomes, runner-up at 32%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Charles Booker
Outcomes
8
winner-take-all
Runner-up
32¢
James Talarico
Spread
20pp
contested
24h volume
$3
thin orderbook
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
53 days
Venue
Kalshi
8 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Bernie Sanders endorse
Will Bernie Sanders endorse James Talarico in the 2026 United States Senate election in Texas before Nov 3, 2026?: James Talarico
KXBERNIEENDORSE-26NOV03-JTAL
Will Bernie Sanders endorse Nithya Raman in the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral race before Nov 3, 2026?: Nithya Raman
KXBERNIEENDORSE-26NOV03-NRAM
Will Bernie Sanders endorse Mary Peltola in the 2026 United States Senate election in Alaska before Nov 3, 2026?: Mary Peltola
KXBERNIEENDORSE-26NOV03-MPEL
Will Bernie Sanders endorse Josh Turek in Iowa Senate Race before Nov 3, 2026?: Josh Turek
KXBERNIEENDORSE-26NOV03-JTUR
Will Bernie Sanders endorse Juliana Stratton in the 2026 United States Senate election in Illinois before Nov 3, 2026?: Juliana Stratton
KXBERNIEENDORSE-26NOV03-JSTR
Will Bernie Sanders endorse Gina Hinojosa in the 2026 Texas gubernatorial race before Nov 3, 2026?: Gina Hinojosa
KXBERNIEENDORSE-26NOV03-GHIN
Will Bernie Sanders endorse Dan Osborn in the 2026 United States Senate election in Nebraska before Nov 3, 2026?: Dan Osborn
KXBERNIEENDORSE-26NOV03-DOSB
Will Bernie Sanders endorse Charles Booker in the 2026 United States Senate election in Kentucky before Nov 3, 2026?: Charles Booker
KXBERNIEENDORSE-26NOV03-CBOO
Analysis
This market estimates an 83% likelihood that Bernie Sanders will endorse Antonio Delgado in New York's 2026 gubernatorial race before November 3, 2026. Sanders has a demonstrated pattern of endorsing progressive candidates in high-profile races, making such an endorsement plausible. However, the probability reflects uncertainty about whether Delgado remains Sanders' preferred candidate, potential competing endorsements, or shifts in the race dynamics. The single largest catalyst is the Democratic primary outcome and whether Delgado emerges as the frontrunner, since Sanders typically endorses once party frontrunners become clear. The endorsement window closes November 3, 2026, making timing a critical factor. Current trading volume is minimal, suggesting limited market conviction relative to the headline probability.
- ›Sanders endorsed James Talarico for Texas Senate at 83% probability, indicating the market is pricing multiple concurrent Sanders endorsement outcomes as partially overlapping rather than mutually exclusive
- ›Delgado's status as likely Democratic gubernatorial nominee or frontrunner status would substantially increase endorsement likelihood, while a primary loss or withdrawal would decrease it
- ›Sanders' historical endorsement pattern shows he typically waits for clearer frontrunner emergence rather than endorsing early, affecting the timing within the Nov 3 deadline
- ›Zero trading volume across most related contracts suggests low market liquidity and potentially thin conviction behind the 83% figure
- ›The presence of competing high-probability Sanders endorsements (Texas at 83%, Illinois at 79%) may indicate market modeling assumes Sanders endorses multiple candidates rather than just one
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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