SimpleFunctions

Kid Rock · Who will Trump publicly praise by May 31

Kid Rock is priced at 45¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 23¢ bid, 75¢ ask, 52¢ spread. This outcome ranks #6 of 16 inside Who will Trump publicly praise by May 31?.

Price history

45¢ current

+3¢
25¢50¢
May 24, 2026May 28, 2026

Contract brief

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly praises the listed individual between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying statement includes any remark by Trump that expresses approval, admiration, respect, or endorsement of the listed individual personally or professionally. This can include direct praise (e.g., “He/She is smart,” “He’s/She's a great leader”) or equivalent positive descriptions (“impressive,” “strong,” “brilliant,” “doing a great job”) made in reference to the listed individual. Any statement that clearly expresses approval, admiration, or endorsement of the listed individual personally qualifies for this market regardless of context (e.g., "He/She is very smart, but he/she doesn’t seem to know that this policy will harm more of his/her constituents." would qualify). General neutrality or polite diplomatic language (e.g., “We had a good meeting”) will not qualify unless it contains a clear element of positive evaluation. A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that he is the subject. Any written, verbal, or recorded usage will qualify. The resolution source for this market will be public statements from Donald Trump.

Outcome

Kid Rock

Rank

#6 of 16

Leader

Karoline Leavitt 53¢

Range

5¢-53¢

Family volume

$1K

Identifier

0x7ab45a90...efa0

May 28, 2026, 7:08 PM UTC · 13m ago

Implied probability

45¢
Latest venue quote
May 28, 2026, 7:08 PM UTC · 13m ago

Bid

23¢

Ask

75¢

Spread

52¢

24h volume

$6

Family rank

#6 of 16

16 outcomes · Who will Trump publicly praise by May 31?

Closes

May 31, 2026

Family volume

$1K

Orderbook snapshot

23 / 75¢

Polymarket
52¢ spread
BidSize
100¢516
23¢24
12¢15
3¢20
2¢249
AskSize
75¢36
81¢5
84¢6
87¢8
90¢10
92¢13
93¢6
94¢17

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly praises the listed individual between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying statement includes any remark by Trump that expresses approval, admiration, respect, or endorsement of the listed individual personally or professionally. This can include direct praise (e.g., “He/She is smart,” “He’s/She's a great leader”) or equivalent positive descriptions (“impressive,” “strong,” “brilliant,” “doing a great job”) made in reference to the listed individual. Any statement that clearly expresses approval, admiration, or endorsement of the listed individual personally qualifies for this market regardless of context (e.g., "He/She is very smart, but he/she doesn’t seem to know that this policy will harm more of his/her constituents." would qualify). General neutrality or polite diplomatic language (e.g., “We had a good meeting”) will not qualify unless it contains a clear element of positive evaluation. A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that he is the subject. Any written, verbal, or recorded usage will qualify. The resolution source for this market will be public statements from Donald Trump.

Venue

Polymarket

Closes

May 31, 2026

Identifier

0x7ab45a90…efa0

SF Signal
SF Index
62328.43
Regime
neutral

Event family

Who will Trump publicly praise by May 31.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$1K

Outcomes

16

Highest price

Karoline Leavitt 53¢

Current share

2%

OutcomePriceVolume24hDepth

Karoline Leavitt

polymarket · 0xe8157a9459709a6b41ac7db35823c339d5bb0c678570ad8e86b8bfcc14b58101

53¢
$74$0

Jesus

polymarket · 0x294c5ee2d5d2d6bc5d4714e05e8bd41df7af8924d40183e56e5b4b8c01d2c8a3

49¢
$121$81.4

Weijia Jiang

polymarket · 0x9eb45569a6b63197ff7a3811867ea5f56a599f52cb7c83c978b85b4a0d944b34

49¢
$80$0

Erika Kirk

polymarket · 0x1b5bf920c72dcf9be9096276bd1473407ed1b75dd31e4177e0a7d21ab94e0928

46¢
$113$5

Vladimir Putin

polymarket · 0x85b68d0c78516624b80da4a98ba8296b7a040f9d0f32b4fb3064c5692855aed3

46¢
$1$0

Kid Rock

polymarket · 0x7ab45a90c513355ab221ef75feca289caf96e26f10bdea193350d2ebdb96efa0

45¢
$19$6

Mark Rutte

polymarket · 0x6a35d12f30005fd78d360fb87b94ab1f99c36756d70fe1f1d77e0477a4d34686

44¢
$84$0

Ronny Jackson

polymarket · 0x02567842dbf50566b62220a556f5a36947c06fa2788bd781fa9e486f50d4367f

42¢
$0$0

Lee Greenwood

polymarket · 0xa5e0f8452c404e2e36a853745af561a1bf6898c8dee5278a1aa0db6f9d592f42

42¢
$0$0

Franklin Graham

polymarket · 0xd0be2a6172edf522d344720972c90f18bba0f8084c0cea2cdaaa6948be815b14

41¢
$0$0

Oz Pearlman

polymarket · 0x86d623600ec2a876f8bbb552f5c0a36ddaf0d9fe2dd3f2b29e2492fe312fe49c

41¢
$0$0

Pope Leo XIV

polymarket · 0x37862fc34837643ff10c83b6d054aae83e97f99ce1552f97bd854704403c124b

21¢
$5$0

William McKinley

polymarket · 0xf17d3fee69d2224cdbaae0f81810f78227e84fe1a8b437085071500020d00b52

18¢
$9$0

Allah

polymarket · 0x6db7750759c507d4f4c8ea4c2b3c93d2b1c41fdd052cec4b58b7f9ab2565e81d

9¢
$77$52

Hillary Clinton

polymarket · 0x1c8fa360d69fa6bd7e62984b6f140164fcb9257be545f3e1e7febe72e69570a9

7¢
$205$17

Joe Biden

polymarket · 0x4891f328044a50ff6415326cf43bcaf00cc7bf436824ce5631f53a574932fbfb

5¢
$250$0

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

CRI

4

VR

1.71

IAR

2.2/h

Overround

2.3%

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

4
VR
1.71
IAR
2.2/h
Overround
2.3%

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.