Who will Trump publicly praise by May 31
Leader sits at 49% across 16 bound outcomes, runner-up at 37%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Karoline Leavitt
Outcomes
16
winner-take-all
Runner-up
37¢
Jesus
Spread
12pp
contested
24h volume
$88
thin orderbook
Closes
May 31, 2026
2 days
Venue
Polymarket
16 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will Trump publicly praise by May 31
Who will Trump publicly praise by May 31?: Allah
0x6db775…e81d
Who will Trump publicly praise by May 31?: Hillary Clinton
0x1c8fa3…70a9
Who will Trump publicly praise by May 31?: Jesus
0x294c5e…c8a3
Who will Trump publicly praise by May 31?: Kid Rock
0x7ab45a…efa0
Who will Trump publicly praise by May 31?: Erika Kirk
0x1b5bf9…0928
Who will Trump publicly praise by May 31?: William McKinley
0xf17d3f…0b52
Who will Trump publicly praise by May 31?: Karoline Leavitt
0xe8157a…8101
Who will Trump publicly praise by May 31?: Franklin Graham
0xd0be2a…5b14
Who will Trump publicly praise by May 31?: Lee Greenwood
0xa5e0f8…2f42
Who will Trump publicly praise by May 31?: Weijia Jiang
0x9eb455…4b34
Who will Trump publicly praise by May 31?: Oz Pearlman
0x86d623…e49c
Who will Trump publicly praise by May 31?: Vladimir Putin
0x85b68d…aed3
Who will Trump publicly praise by May 31?: Mark Rutte
0x6a35d1…4686
Who will Trump publicly praise by May 31?: Joe Biden
0x4891f3…fbfb
Who will Trump publicly praise by May 31?: Pope Leo XIV
0x37862f…124b
Who will Trump publicly praise by May 31?: Ronny Jackson
0x025678…367f
Analysis
This market estimates the likelihood that Donald Trump will make a public statement praising a specific individual between now and May 31, 2026—roughly one week away. The current 48% probability reflects meaningful uncertainty about whether Trump will issue such praise in this narrow timeframe. The outcome hinges on Trump's public communication patterns and whether he mentions any of the named individuals favorably in interviews, social media posts, or official statements. The tight six-day window means the resolution depends entirely on Trump's spontaneous or planned public remarks during this period. With zero trading volume on these contracts, the pricing may not reflect recent shifts in expectations or breaking news that could influence Trump's public statements.
- ›Time window is 6 days remaining (May 25-31), creating a compressed probability space where daily activity matters substantially
- ›No trading volume in past 24 hours suggests thin liquidity and potentially stale price signals that may not reflect current expectations
- ›The leading contracts (Ronny Jackson at 42¢, Erika Kirk at 43¢) suggest market participants are pricing multiple plausible outcomes rather than consensus on a single individual
- ›Trump's public communication frequency and style determine the baseline probability—higher activity increases chances someone gets mentioned favorably
- ›Resolution depends on literal public praise language; unclear whether threshold includes casual mentions, retweets, or only explicit endorsements
What moved the line
- May 26William McKinley↓14pp42→28¢ · Polymarket
- May 26Kid Rock↓13pp43→30¢ · Polymarket
- May 26Mark Rutte↓13pp42→29¢ · Polymarket
- May 26Oz Pearlman↓13pp43→30¢ · Polymarket
- May 26Erika Kirk↓12pp40→28¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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