What is the current probability for "Who will win Rookie of the Year?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 22¢ (22% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on April 12, 2027. 353 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Who will win Rookie of the Year?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 366.9% and 29.2% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Who will win Rookie of the Year?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Who will win Rookie of the Year?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 22% probability that Who will win Rookie of the Year?. This contract trades at 22¢ on Kalshi, closing April 12, 2027. The market is pricing Kon Knueppel at 29¢ with an extraordinarily high realized volatility of 871% and a vol ratio of 6.96, suggesting extreme price swings relative to typical prediction markets.

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22¢

Bid/Ask 23/25¢·Spread 2¢·Vol $130,596.57·OI $1,679,000.31·Closes Apr 12, 2027·353d remaining

KXNBAROY-26-KKNU

7-day price803 snapshots · 128 regime

63¢22¢ current

Apr 817¢Apr 24

Analysis

7d ago

The market is pricing Kon Knueppel at 29¢ with an extraordinarily high realized volatility of 871% and a vol ratio of 6.96, suggesting extreme price swings relative to typical prediction markets. The Yes side offers a striking 273.7% implied yield against a modest 37.4% for No, indicating asymmetric risk pricing that may reflect either deep uncertainty about Knueppel's rookie season performance or potential mispricing given the 361-day time horizon. With $1.48M in open interest but only $104K in 24-hour volume and a tight 1¢ spread, liquidity appears concentrated rather than active, warranting caution on execution size.

Resolution rules

If Kon Knueppel wins the Pro basketball Rookie of the Year in the 2025-26 season, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 366.9%

IY (No) 29.2%

Adj IY 283%

CRI 4

RV 1066%

VR 6.11

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	366.9%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	29.2%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	283%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	4	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	1066%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	6.11	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	1.5/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	-0.0%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.23	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Computed

4/24/2026, 8:30:37 PM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/24/2026, 8:23:44 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXNBAROY-26-KKNU yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →