Who will win Rookie of the Year

30-day trend

Analysis

This 15% probability reflects market expectations for a specific Rookie of the Year winner in what appears to be a fragmented field. The low individual contract prices suggest no single candidate has emerged as the clear favorite, with the highest-priced contract at 11 cents indicating distributed expectations across multiple rookies. The current probability level is driven by competitive uncertainty among candidates like Jadarian Price, Jordyn Tyson, and Makai Lemon. Movement in this probability will depend on performance metrics during the remainder of the season and how individual rookie statistics develop relative to peers. The primary resolution point will be the official Rookie of the Year award announcement at season's end, which typically occurs in early 2027, making regular performance data and voting patterns key indicators of probability shifts.

• ›No single candidate contracts above 11 cents suggests a competitive, multi-candidate field rather than a consensus favorite
• ›The gap between individual contract prices (7-11 cents) indicates meaningful probability distributed across at least 3-4 serious contenders
• ›24-hour trading volumes remain modest (under $300 for top contracts), suggesting limited market certainty or attention to individual rookie races
• ›Performance statistics and cumulative season data through the remainder of 2026 will directly influence probabilities as voters evaluate candidates
• ›The official award announcement timing in early 2027 serves as the hard resolution date, making pre-announcement period trading patterns a potential leading indicator

What moved the line

• Jun 23Declan Rice↓9pp14→5¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 22Bruno Fernandes↑8pp57→65¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 17Bruno Fernandes↓4pp59→55¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 23Caleb Downs↑3pp17→20¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 21Declan Rice↑3pp13→16¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds