Who will win Rookie of the Year
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 12% across 7 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
12%
7 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1K
7 contracts
Closes
Jul 8, 2027
315 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
7 clusters across 7 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Caleb Wilson win Rookie of the Year
Will Caleb Wilson win Rookie of the Year?: Caleb Wilson
KXNBAROY-27-CWIL
Cluster 2
Will Darius Acuff Jr. win Rookie of the Year
Will Darius Acuff Jr. win Rookie of the Year?: Darius Acuff Jr.
KXNBAROY-27-DACU
Cluster 3
Will Darryn Peterson win Rookie of the Year
Will Darryn Peterson win Rookie of the Year?: Darryn Peterson
KXNBAROY-27-DPET
Cluster 4
Will Yaxel Lendeborg win Rookie of the Year
Will Yaxel Lendeborg win Rookie of the Year?: Yaxel Lendeborg
KXNBAROY-27-YLEN
Cluster 5
Will AJ Dybantsa win Rookie of the Year
Will AJ Dybantsa win Rookie of the Year?: AJ Dybantsa
KXNBAROY-27-ADYB
Cluster 6
Will Cameron Boozer win Rookie of the Year
Will Cameron Boozer win Rookie of the Year?: Cameron Boozer
KXNBAROY-27-CBOO
Cluster 7
Will Mikel Brown Jr. win Rookie of the Year
Will Mikel Brown Jr. win Rookie of the Year?: Mikel Brown Jr.
KXNBAROY-27-MBRO
Analysis
This 15% probability reflects market expectations for a specific Rookie of the Year winner in what appears to be a fragmented field. The low individual contract prices suggest no single candidate has emerged as the clear favorite, with the highest-priced contract at 11 cents indicating distributed expectations across multiple rookies. The current probability level is driven by competitive uncertainty among candidates like Jadarian Price, Jordyn Tyson, and Makai Lemon. Movement in this probability will depend on performance metrics during the remainder of the season and how individual rookie statistics develop relative to peers. The primary resolution point will be the official Rookie of the Year award announcement at season's end, which typically occurs in early 2027, making regular performance data and voting patterns key indicators of probability shifts.
- ›No single candidate contracts above 11 cents suggests a competitive, multi-candidate field rather than a consensus favorite
- ›The gap between individual contract prices (7-11 cents) indicates meaningful probability distributed across at least 3-4 serious contenders
- ›24-hour trading volumes remain modest (under $300 for top contracts), suggesting limited market certainty or attention to individual rookie races
- ›Performance statistics and cumulative season data through the remainder of 2026 will directly influence probabilities as voters evaluate candidates
- ›The official award announcement timing in early 2027 serves as the hard resolution date, making pre-announcement period trading patterns a potential leading indicator
What moved the line
- Aug 23Caleb Wilson↓4pp23→19¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 24Caleb Wilson↑3pp19→22¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 22Yaxel Lendeborg↓3pp6→3¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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