Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 19% probability that Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026?. This contract trades at 19¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This micro-liquidity market on Will Sawin winning the 2026 Fields Medal shows extreme asymmetry, with a 1270% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 15.7% on the No side, reflecting the contract's binary nature and illiquidity ($0 24h volume, $190 open interest).
Analysis
This micro-liquidity market on Will Sawin winning the 2026 Fields Medal shows extreme asymmetry, with a 1270% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 15.7% on the No side, reflecting the contract's binary nature and illiquidity ($0 24h volume, $190 open interest). The 9¢ spread is substantial relative to the 18¢ price, and the high cliff risk index of 9 suggests significant resolution uncertainty or potential for sharp repricing closer to the 12/31/2026 expiry. The stagnant 7-day price action at 10¢ combined with zero recent volume indicates this is a speculative position with minimal market discovery.
Also on polymarket at 16¢(Δ +3¢)
Resolution rules
If Will Sawin wins the Fields Medal in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXFIELDS-26-WSAW yes 100