Who will win the governorship in California?
This contract is priced at 10¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 10¢ bid, 10¢ ask, 0¢ spread.
Implied probability
Event outcomes
7
Family volume
$75K
Best sibling
Chad Bianco 4¢
Ticker
KXGOVCA-26-SHIL
Price history
10¢ current
+5¢Orderbook snapshot
10 / 10¢
Contract terms
Resolution, venue, and identifiers.
Resolution rules
If Steve Hilton is elected to the governorship of California pursuant to the election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Identifier
KXGOVCA-26-SHIL
Event family
Who will win the governorship in California.
This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.
Total volume
$75K
Outcomes
7
Highest price
Tom Steyer 40¢
Current share
56%
Steve Hilton
kalshi · KXGOVCA-26-SHIL
Chad Bianco
kalshi · KXGOVCA-26-CBIA
Matt Mahan
kalshi · KXGOVCA-26-MMAH
Tom Steyer
kalshi · KXGOVCA-26-TSTE
Xavier Becerra
kalshi · KXGOVCA-26-XBEC
Katie Porter
kalshi · KXGOVCA-26-KPOR
Tony Thurmond
kalshi · KXGOVCA-26-TTHU
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.35
Observability
low
Event type
political
Full indicator table
Odds pages
Related prediction questions
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)
Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.
Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets
Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.
Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Reading Depth, Spread, and Liquidity
How to read prediction market orderbooks. Binary settlement, spread-as-percentage, depth asymmetry, executable edge calculation, and cross-venue arbitrage analysis.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: A Developer's Comparison of APIs, Orderbooks, and Liquidity
Data-driven comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, orderbooks, rate limits, and liquidity. Code examples for building on both prediction markets.
Implied Yield vs Raw Probability: Why Bond-Adjacent Prediction Markets Need a Different Lens
Why fixed-income-adjacent prediction-market contracts need to be priced in implied yield, not raw probability, with two real Kalshi Fed-decision contracts as a case study.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 10% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.