Will Houston win the 2H by over 13.5 points
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 22% across 17 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
22%
17 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$136K
17 contracts
Closes
Feb 13, 2029
1017 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 17 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 14% of their title tokens — “Who will win the governorship in California” vs “Will Houston”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Who will win the governorship in California
Who will win the governorship in California?: Steve Hilton
KXGOVCA-26-SHIL
Who will win the governorship in California?: Chad Bianco
KXGOVCA-26-CBIA
Who will win the governorship in California?: Xavier Becerra
KXGOVCA-26-XBEC
Who will win the governorship in California?: Matt Mahan
KXGOVCA-26-MMAH
Who will win the governorship in California?: Tom Steyer
KXGOVCA-26-TSTE
Who will win the governorship in California?: Katie Porter
KXGOVCA-26-KPOR
Cluster 2
Will Houston
Will Houston win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?: Houston
KXSB-27-HOU
Will Houston win the 2026 Pro Baseball American League Championship?: Houston
KXMLBAL-26-HOU
Will Houston be the 2026 AL West Division Winner: Houston
KXMLBALWEST-26-HOU
Will Houston win the College Basketball National Championship?: Houston
KXMARMAD-27-HOU
Cluster 3
Will the Democratic party win the governorship
Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Alaska: Democratic party
KXGOVPARTYAK-26-D
Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Arizona: Democratic party
GOVPARTYAZ-26-D
Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Georgia: Democratic party
GOVPARTYGA-26-D
Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Florida: Democratic party
GOVPARTYFL-26-D
Cluster 4
Will the Republican party win the governorship
Will the Republican party win the governorship in California: Republican party
GOVPARTYCA-26-R
Will the Republican party win the governorship in Arizona: Republican party
GOVPARTYAZ-26-R
Will the Republican party win the governorship in Georgia: Republican party
GOVPARTYGA-26-R
What moved the line
- Apr 28Democratic party↓6pp63→57¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 29Xavier Becerra↑4pp29→33¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 30Xavier Becerra↑4pp33→37¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 30Republican party↑4pp36→40¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Republican party↓4pp40→36¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 9 min ago.