Who will be the #1 chess player according to the May 2026 FIDE World Top Players (top 100 players) Standard Rating List
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 25% across 20 contracts. Kalshi at 26%, Polymarket at 6% — a 20pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
26%
19 contracts
Polymarket
6%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
20pp
wide divergence
24h move
+1pp
37h ago
24h volume
$246K
20 contracts
Closes
Nov 7, 2029
1284 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 26¢ · Polymarket 6¢ · 20pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (6¢, 1 contract) and sell on Kalshi (26¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
2 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Who will win
Who will win Coach of the Year?: JB Bickerstaff
KXNBACOY-26-JBIC
Who will win the governorship in California?: Steve Hilton
KXGOVCA-26-SHIL
Who will win Coach of the Year?: Joe Mazzulla
KXNBACOY-26-JMAZ
Who will win the governorship in California?: Chad Bianco
KXGOVCA-26-CBIA
Who will win the next presidential election?: Kamala Harris
KXPRESPERSON-28-KHAR
Who will win the next presidential election?: Gavin Newsom
KXPRESPERSON-28-GNEWS
Who will win the next presidential election?: Andy Beshear
KXPRESPERSON-28-ABES
Who will win the governorship in California?: Xavier Becerra
KXGOVCA-26-XBEC
Who will win the governorship in California?: Tom Steyer
KXGOVCA-26-TSTE
Who will win the next presidential election?: J.D. Vance
KXPRESPERSON-28-JVAN
Who will win the governorship in California?: Katie Porter
KXGOVCA-26-KPOR
Who will win Players' Player of the Year?: Erling Haaland
KXPFAPOY-2526-EHAA
Who will win Players' Player of the Year?: Bruno Fernandes
KXPFAPOY-2526-BFER
Who will win Players' Player of the Year?: Declan Rice
KXPFAPOY-2526-DRIC
Cluster 2
Who will be
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?: Avigdor Lieberman
0xadffc9…4ec0
Who will be the head coach of New England for Week 1?: Mike Vrabel
KXCOACHONDATE-NE26-MVRA
Who will be the #1 ranked ATP men's singles player on Jun 30, 2026?: Carlos Alcaraz
KXATP1RANK-26JUN30-CALC
Who will be the #1 ranked ATP men's singles player on Dec 31, 2026?: Carlos Alcaraz
KXATP1RANK-26DEC31-CALC
Who will be the #1 ranked ATP men's singles player on Dec 31, 2026?: Daniil Medvedev
KXATP1RANK-26DEC31-DMED
Who will be the #1 ranked ATP men's singles player on Dec 31, 2026?: Jannik Sinner
KXATP1RANK-26DEC31-JSIN
Analysis
This probability reflects the likelihood that a single player will hold the highest standard rating on the May 2026 FIDE World Top Players list. The 24% probability suggests meaningful uncertainty about rating leadership despite recent dominance patterns in elite chess. The market's assessment likely reflects two competing forces: the typical stability of the #1 ranking among top players with rating gaps of 10-15 points, versus recent volatility in the elite chess landscape where multiple players have held the top spot. The May 2026 FIDE rating list publication will definitively resolve this market, with no interim data releases changing the outcome. Players trade wins and losses in classical tournaments throughout the rating period, gradually shifting their ratings up or down relative to peers.
- ›Current May 2026 FIDE standard rating list composition and the specific player currently rated #1
- ›Rating distribution gap between the top-ranked player and second place, with larger margins suggesting greater stability
- ›Classical tournament results and rating changes across the elite chess field during the 2024-2026 rating period
- ›Whether recent #1 players have maintained competitive tournament activity or taken extended breaks affecting rating momentum
- ›The specific title holder's historical rating volatility and head-to-head performance against other top-10 players
What moved the line
- Apr 29Bruno Fernandes↑17pp33→50¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 26Erling Haaland↓15pp33→18¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Bruno Fernandes↓14pp43→29¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 27Jannik Sinner↑9pp80→89¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 28Mike Vrabel↑8pp68→76¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 9 min ago.