Who will win the WA-4 primary?
Prediction markets currently give a 73% probability that Who will win the WA-4 primary?. This contract trades at 73¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2026. The market is pricing Amanda McKinney as a heavy favorite at 76¢ with minimal trading activity ($0 in 24h volume) and thin liquidity ($1,479.68 open interest), creating a notably lopsided risk profile where the No side offers an extraordinary 545.9% implied yield compared to just 60.7% for Yes.
Analysis
The market is pricing Amanda McKinney as a heavy favorite at 76¢ with minimal trading activity ($0 in 24h volume) and thin liquidity ($1,479.68 open interest), creating a notably lopsided risk profile where the No side offers an extraordinary 545.9% implied yield compared to just 60.7% for Yes. The price has drifted upward 4 cents over seven days despite zero recent volume, and the extreme yield asymmetry combined with low liquidity suggests this market may be mispriced or simply illiquid rather than reflecting genuine conviction about McKinney's primary prospects with over 200 days until resolution.
Resolution rules
If Amanda McKinney advances to the general election in WA-4 in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXWA4PRIMARY-26-AMCK yes 100