Will a hurricane make landfall in the US by May 31?

The 7¢ price reflects a 7% probability of US hurricane landfall by May 31, 2026, which appears reasonable given the timeframe spans the tail end of Atlantic hurricane season (peak activity ends in October). However, the extreme implied yield of 11,033% on the "Yes" side signals severe mispricing or illiquidity concerns—this yield assumes a 7¢ investment returning to $1 at resolution, creating an unrealistic risk-reward that suggests thin order book depth despite $1.9M open interest. The 1,054% realized volatility and elevated cliff risk index (13) indicate this market has experienced sharp price swings, likely driven by the low absolute price point where small dollar movements create outsized percentage moves rather than genuine probability shifts.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No". This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met. For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall. This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.

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