Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31

████████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░

20%

15 markets·Kalshi + Polymarket

Kalshi

████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░

18%

9 contracts

Polymarket

██████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░

23%

6 contracts

Cross-venue gap5¢

Contracts

Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?

P$286K

3¢

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

P$151K

8¢

Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before May 15, 2026?: Before May 15, 2026

K$66K

13¢

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

P$59K

21¢

Will the WTI front-month settle oil price be >100.99 on May 1, 2026?: $101 or above

K$13K

32¢

Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?

P$13K

93¢

Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?: Before June

K$13K

19¢

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?: May 31

P$11K

3¢

Will legislation that, upon becoming law, results in the Department of Homeland Security being funded at 12:01 AM ET the calendar day after enactment become law before May 15, 2026?: Before May 15, 2026

K$7K

40¢

Will the WTI front-month settle oil price be Between 97.00 and 97.99 on May 1, 2026?: $97 to 97.99

K$6K

6¢

Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?: Before July

K$6K

25¢

Will the WTI front-month settle oil price be Between 100.00 and 100.99 on May 1, 2026?: $100 to 100.99

K$6K

5¢

Will Kash Patel announce their departure as FBI Director before May 1, 2026?: Before May 1, 2026