Above 249 people pardoned in June 2026
At least 250 is priced at 25¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 21¢ bid, 26¢ ask, 5¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 8 inside KXPARDONSTRUMP-26JUN.
Price history
25¢ current
−31¢Contract brief
If the President pardons, commutes the sentence of, or gives reprieve to above 249 persons in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
At least 250
Rank
#2 of 8
Leader
0 46¢
Range
1¢-46¢
Family volume
$1
Identifier
KXPARDONSTRUMP-26JUN-124
May 27, 2026, 11:08 PM UTC · 9m ago
Implied probability
Bid
21¢
Ask
26¢
Spread
5¢
Reported volume
$3K
Family rank
#2 of 8
8 outcomes · KXPARDONSTRUMP-26JUN
Closes
Jul 1, 2026
Family volume
$1
Orderbook snapshot
21 / 26¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the President pardons, commutes the sentence of, or gives reprieve to above 249 persons in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jul 1, 2026
Identifier
KXPARDONSTRUMP-26JUN-124
Event family
KXPARDONSTRUMP-26JUN.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$1
Outcomes
8
Highest price
0 46¢
Current share
0%
0
kalshi · KXPARDONSTRUMP-26JUN-0
At least 250
kalshi · KXPARDONSTRUMP-26JUN-124
100 to 249
kalshi · KXPARDONSTRUMP-26JUN-174
2
kalshi · KXPARDONSTRUMP-26JUN-2
1
kalshi · KXPARDONSTRUMP-26JUN-1
10 to 24
kalshi · KXPARDONSTRUMP-26JUN-17
3 to 9
kalshi · KXPARDONSTRUMP-26JUN-6
25 to 99
kalshi · KXPARDONSTRUMP-26JUN-62
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.