Will Donald Trump pardon between 3 and 9 people before May 1, 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 27% across 4 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
27%
4 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1K
4 contracts
Closes
Aug 1, 2026
2 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 4 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 13% of their title tokens — “Will between” vs “Will above 249 people be pardoned in July 2026”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will between
Will between 10 and 24 people be pardoned in July 2026?: 10 to 24
KXPARDONSTRUMP-26JUL-17
Will between 25 and 99 people be pardoned in July 2026?: 25 to 99
KXPARDONSTRUMP-26JUL-62
Will between 100 and 249 people be pardoned in July 2026?: 100 to 249
KXPARDONSTRUMP-26JUL-174
Cluster 2
Will above 249 people be pardoned in July 2026
Will above 249 people be pardoned in July 2026?: Above 249
KXPARDONSTRUMP-26JUL-124
Analysis
This market estimates a 26% probability that Donald Trump will issue pardons affecting between 3 and 9 people before June 1, 2026. The current probability reflects market expectations based on presidential pardon patterns and available information about pending cases. Key factors influencing this estimate include the overall rate of presidential pardons compared to historical norms, any public statements or signals from the administration about planned clemency actions, and the number of high-profile cases awaiting potential pardon consideration. The resolution date of June 1, 2026 provides a defined window; once that date passes, the market will settle based on official counts of people pardoned. Market activity suggests traders view a 0-pardon outcome as more likely, though contracts on higher pardon volumes remain available at lower prices.
- ›The market currently prices a near-certain outcome of 0 pardons before June 1 (96¢ contract), suggesting minimal expectation of clemency actions in the near term
- ›Historical presidential pardon volumes vary significantly by administration and timing; the narrow 3-9 person range sits between the 0-outcome base case and higher-volume scenarios
- ›Specific catalysts that would increase pardon probability include public announcements, legal developments in high-profile cases, or statements from administration officials regarding clemency
- ›Market depth is limited with most high-volume contracts trading at minimal prices ($0 volume), indicating low confidence in predicting pardon numbers above 14
- ›The June 1, 2026 deadline is 1 day away as of the current date, meaning resolution is imminent and will depend entirely on actions already taken or occurring in the final 24 hours
What moved the line
- Jul 2525 to 99↑4pp4→8¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 2725 to 99↓3pp7→4¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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