Will Donald Trump pardon between 3 and 9 people before May 1, 2026
Leader sits at 53% across 8 bound outcomes, runner-up at 5%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
0
Outcomes
8
winner-take-all
Runner-up
5¢
3 to 9
Spread
48pp
contested
24h volume
$58
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 1, 2026
23 days
Venue
Kalshi
8 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Donald Trump pardon
Will Donald Trump pardon between 3 and 9 people before Jun 1, 2026?: 3 to 9
KXPARDONSTRUMP-26MAY-6
Will Donald Trump pardon exactly 0 people before Jun 1, 2026?: 0
KXPARDONSTRUMP-26MAY-0
Will Donald Trump pardon above 24 people before Jun 1, 2026?: Above 24
KXPARDONSTRUMP-26MAY-24
Will Donald Trump pardon between 20 and 24 people before Jun 1, 2026?: 20 to 24
KXPARDONSTRUMP-26MAY-22
Will Donald Trump pardon between 15 and 19 people before Jun 1, 2026?: 15 to 19
KXPARDONSTRUMP-26MAY-17
Will Donald Trump pardon between 10 and 14 people before Jun 1, 2026?: 10 to 14
KXPARDONSTRUMP-26MAY-12
Will Donald Trump pardon exactly 2 people before Jun 1, 2026?: 2
KXPARDONSTRUMP-26MAY-2
Will Donald Trump pardon exactly 1 people before Jun 1, 2026?: 1
KXPARDONSTRUMP-26MAY-1
What moved the line
- May 70↑8pp45→53¢ · Kalshi
- May 71↓3pp6→3¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 2 min ago.