Alex Mashinsky · KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21
Alex Mashinsky is priced at 12¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 12¢ bid, 14¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This outcome ranks #15 of 16 inside KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21.
Price history
12¢ current
Contract brief
If Alex Mashinsky has been given a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve during Trump's second term and before Jan 21, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Alex Mashinsky
Rank
#15 of 16
Leader
Donald Trump Jr. 50¢
Range
9¢-50¢
Family volume
$114
Identifier
KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-AMAS
May 25, 2026, 7:08 AM UTC · 5m ago
Implied probability
Bid
12¢
Ask
14¢
Spread
2¢
Reported volume
$8K
Family rank
#15 of 16
16 outcomes · KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21
Closes
Jan 21, 2029
Family volume
$114
Orderbook snapshot
12 / 14¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Alex Mashinsky has been given a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve during Trump's second term and before Jan 21, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 21, 2029
Identifier
KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-AMAS
Event family
KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$114
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Donald Trump Jr. 50¢
Current share
0%
Donald Trump Jr.
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-DJTR
Donald Trump
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-DJT
Barron Trump
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-BAR
Ghislaine Maxwell
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-GMAX
Bill Hwang
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-BHWA
Elizabeth Holmes
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-EHOL
Pam Bondi
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-PBON
Bob Menendez
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-BMEN
Eric Adams
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-EADA
Derek Chauvin
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-DCHA
Do Kwon
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-DKWO
Sean Combs
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-SCOM
Brian Cole Jr.
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-BCJ
Daniel Hale
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-DHAL
Alex Mashinsky
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-AMAS
DeAndre Way
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-DWAY
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.