Will Alex Mashinsky receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029

30-day trend

Analysis

This probability reflects traders' assessment of whether Alex Mashinsky, founder of Celsius Network who was convicted of fraud and conspiracy in 2024, will receive a presidential pardon before January 21, 2029. The 34% probability sits in the middle range relative to other high-profile defendants facing similar questions. The main factors driving this level are Mashinsky's profile as a cryptocurrency executive rather than a political figure, and the precedent set by any earlier presidential pardon decisions in similar cases. The primary catalyst for uncertainty resolution will be any pardon announcements by the sitting president, with major decision-making likely occurring in the final weeks before the January 2029 deadline. Comparable defendants facing pardon consideration—including financial fraud cases like FTX's Sam Bankman-Fried (35¢) and Elizabeth Holmes (36¢)—trade at similar odds, suggesting markets view Mashinsky's likelihood as aligned with other major financial crime defendants.

• ›Mashinsky was convicted in March 2024 on fraud charges related to Celsius Network collapse; pardon probability may shift based on his sentencing severity and restitution obligations
• ›Cryptocurrency-related convictions have not historically received frequent executive pardons; any change in political attitudes toward crypto could materially affect odds
• ›Comparable high-profile financial fraud defendants (SBF, Holmes, Maxwell) trade between 35-36¢, suggesting market consensus that non-political financial crimes receive pardons roughly one-third of the time
• ›Presidential pardon authority is unlimited but typically concentrated in final weeks of an administration; timing announcements would dramatically shift probability as deadline approaches
• ›Any public statements from the current or future administration regarding cryptocurrency fraud or Celsius specifically would serve as a concrete signal of pardon likelihood

What moved the line

• Sep 19Sean Combs↓20pp25→5¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 19Torence Hatch↓16pp36→20¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 19Joseph Maldonado↓14pp17→3¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 17Larry Householder↑12pp13→25¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 19Edward Snowden↓12pp20→8¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds