Will Alex Mashinsky receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 35% across 19 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
35%
19 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$7K
19 contracts
Closes
Jan 21, 2029
988 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
18 clusters across 19 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 20% of their title tokens — “Will Donald Trump” vs “Will Barron Trump receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Donald Trump
Cluster 2
Will Barron Trump receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029
Will Barron Trump receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?: Barron Trump
KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-BAR
Cluster 3
Will Marco Rubio receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029
Will Marco Rubio receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?: Marco Rubio
KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-MRUB
Cluster 4
Will Ghislaine Maxwell receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029
Cluster 5
Will Jared Kushner receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029
Will Jared Kushner receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?: Jared Kushner
KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-JKUS
Cluster 6
Will Edward Snowden receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029
Will Edward Snowden receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?: Edward Snowden
KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-ESNO
Cluster 7
Will Scott Bessent receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029
Will Scott Bessent receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?: Scott Bessent
KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-SBES
Cluster 8
Will JD Vance receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029
Will JD Vance receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?: JD Vance
KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-JVAN
Cluster 9
Will Robin Smith receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029
Will Robin Smith receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?: Robin Smith
KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-RSMI
Cluster 10
Will Larry Householder receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029
Cluster 11
Will Matt Borges receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029
Will Matt Borges receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?: Matt Borges
KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-MBOR
Cluster 12
Will Joseph Maldonado receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029
Will Joseph Maldonado receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?: Joseph Maldonado
KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-JMAL
Cluster 13
Will Torence Hatch receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029
Will Torence Hatch receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?: Torence Hatch
KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-THAT
Cluster 14
Will Sean Combs receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029
Will Sean Combs receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?: Sean Combs
KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-SCOM
Cluster 15
Will Sam Bankman-Fried receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029
Will Sam Bankman-Fried receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?: Sam Bankman-Fried
KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-SBF
Cluster 16
Will Julian Assange receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029
Will Julian Assange receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?: Julian Assange
KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-JASS
Cluster 17
Will Eric Adams receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029
Will Eric Adams receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?: Eric Adams
KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-EADA
Cluster 18
Will Derek Chauvin receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029
Will Derek Chauvin receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?: Derek Chauvin
KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-DCHA
Analysis
This market estimates the odds that Alex Mashinsky, the former Celsius CEO convicted in cryptocurrency fraud cases, receives a presidential pardon before January 21, 2029. At 31%, the probability reflects uncertainty about whether a sitting or future president would extend clemency to a prominent crypto-industry figure convicted of financial crimes. The estimate is influenced by historical pardon rates for white-collar financial crimes, the political salience of cryptocurrency regulation, and the identity of the sitting president. Comparable contracts suggest pardons for major financial criminals remain relatively unlikely—related contracts for similar figures range from 6% to 50%—though outcomes vary significantly based on the specific case and defendant. The primary uncertainty driver is whether a future administration prioritizes cryptocurrency industry rehabilitation or maintains distance from controversial convictions in the sector.
- ›Mashinsky's conviction date, sentence length, and classification of charges relative to historical pardon patterns for financial criminals
- ›Current and future presidential administrations' stated positions on cryptocurrency regulation and industry figures
- ›Market pricing of similar pardon contracts for comparable defendants, which currently range 6-50% across different individuals and timeframes
- ›Whether Mashinsky exhausts or succeeds in appellate proceedings before the pardon deadline
- ›Public advocacy from cryptocurrency industry figures or political actors regarding clemency for Mashinsky
What moved the line
- May 6JD Vance↓7pp58→51¢ · Kalshi
- May 7Ghislaine Maxwell↑6pp44→50¢ · Kalshi
- May 8Marco Rubio↓5pp43→38¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Donald Trump↓5pp58→53¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Scott Bessent↓5pp52→47¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 2 min ago.