Will Alex Mashinsky receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 32% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
32%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$196
20 contracts
Closes
Jan 21, 2029
944 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
19 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 10% of their title tokens — “Will Donald Trump” vs “Will JD Vance receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Donald Trump
Cluster 2
Will JD Vance receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029
Will JD Vance receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?: JD Vance
KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-JVAN
Cluster 3
Will Scott Bessent receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029
Will Scott Bessent receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?: Scott Bessent
KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-SBES
Cluster 4
Will Sam Bankman-Fried receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029
Cluster 5
Will Edward Snowden receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029
Will Edward Snowden receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?: Edward Snowden
KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-ESNO
Cluster 6
Will Roger Ver receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029
Will Roger Ver receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?: Roger Ver
KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-RVER
Cluster 7
Will Ghislaine Maxwell receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029
Cluster 8
Will Alex Mashinsky receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029
Will Alex Mashinsky receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?: Alex Mashinsky
KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-AMAS
Cluster 9
Will Barron Trump receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029
Will Barron Trump receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?: Barron Trump
KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-BAR
Cluster 10
Will Brian Cole Jr. receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029
Will Brian Cole Jr. receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?: Brian Cole Jr.
KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-BCJ
Cluster 11
Will Bill Hwang receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029
Will Bill Hwang receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?: Bill Hwang
KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-BHWA
Cluster 12
Will Bob Menendez receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029
Will Bob Menendez receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?: Bob Menendez
KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-BMEN
Cluster 13
Will Derek Chauvin receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029
Will Derek Chauvin receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?: Derek Chauvin
KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-DCHA
Cluster 14
Will Daniel Hale receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029
Will Daniel Hale receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?: Daniel Hale
KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-DHAL
Cluster 15
Will Do Kwon receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029
Will Do Kwon receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?: Do Kwon
KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-DKWO
Cluster 16
Will DeAndre Way receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029
Will DeAndre Way receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?: DeAndre Way
KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-DWAY
Cluster 17
Will Eric Adams receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029
Will Eric Adams receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?: Eric Adams
KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-EADA
Cluster 18
Will Elizabeth Holmes receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029
Will Elizabeth Holmes receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?: Elizabeth Holmes
KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-EHOL
Cluster 19
Will Elon Musk receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029
Will Elon Musk receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?: Elon Musk
KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-EMUS
Analysis
This market estimates the odds that Alex Mashinsky, the former Celsius CEO convicted in cryptocurrency fraud cases, receives a presidential pardon before January 21, 2029. At 31%, the probability reflects uncertainty about whether a sitting or future president would extend clemency to a prominent crypto-industry figure convicted of financial crimes. The estimate is influenced by historical pardon rates for white-collar financial crimes, the political salience of cryptocurrency regulation, and the identity of the sitting president. Comparable contracts suggest pardons for major financial criminals remain relatively unlikely—related contracts for similar figures range from 6% to 50%—though outcomes vary significantly based on the specific case and defendant. The primary uncertainty driver is whether a future administration prioritizes cryptocurrency industry rehabilitation or maintains distance from controversial convictions in the sector.
- ›Mashinsky's conviction date, sentence length, and classification of charges relative to historical pardon patterns for financial criminals
- ›Current and future presidential administrations' stated positions on cryptocurrency regulation and industry figures
- ›Market pricing of similar pardon contracts for comparable defendants, which currently range 6-50% across different individuals and timeframes
- ›Whether Mashinsky exhausts or succeeds in appellate proceedings before the pardon deadline
- ›Public advocacy from cryptocurrency industry figures or political actors regarding clemency for Mashinsky
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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