Bill Hwang · KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21
Bill Hwang is priced at 38¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 37¢ bid, 41¢ ask, 4¢ spread. This outcome ranks #8 of 16 inside KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21.
Price history
38¢ current
+1¢Contract brief
If Bill Hwang has been given a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve during Trump's second term and before Jan 21, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Bill Hwang
Rank
#8 of 16
Leader
Donald Trump Jr. 54¢
Range
1¢-54¢
Family volume
$254
Identifier
KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-BHWA
Jun 24, 2026, 4:38 AM UTC · 9m ago
Implied probability
Bid
37¢
Ask
41¢
Spread
4¢
Reported volume
$167
Family rank
#8 of 16
16 outcomes · KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21
Closes
Jan 21, 2029
Family volume
$254
Orderbook snapshot
37 / 41¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Bill Hwang has been given a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve during Trump's second term and before Jan 21, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 21, 2029
Identifier
KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-BHWA
Event family
KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$254
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Donald Trump Jr. 54¢
Current share
0%
Donald Trump Jr.
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-DJTR
Donald Trump
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-DJT
Barron Trump
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-BAR
Jared Kushner
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-JKUS
Ghislaine Maxwell
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-GMAX
Pete Hegseth
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-PHEG
Elon Musk
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-EMUS
Bill Hwang
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-BHWA
Pam Bondi
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-PBON
Bob Menendez
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-BMEN
Derek Chauvin
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-DCHA
Pete Rose
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-PROS
Brian Cole Jr.
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-BCJ
Daniel Hale
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-DHAL
Alex Mashinsky
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-AMAS
Hunter Biden
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-HBID
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.