What is the current probability for "Will Anne Hathaway attend The Met Gala 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 92¢ (92% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on December 31, 2026. 246 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Anne Hathaway attend The Met Gala 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 66.7% and 330.5% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Anne Hathaway attend The Met Gala 2026?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Anne Hathaway attend The Met Gala 2026?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 92% probability that Will Anne Hathaway attend The Met Gala 2026?. This contract trades at 92¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price unreliable despite the 37.5% implied yield on the Yes side.

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92¢

Bid/Ask 69/91¢·Spread 22¢·Vol $0·OI $56.13·Closes Dec 31, 2026·246d remaining

KXMETGALA-26-ANNE

7-day price144 snapshots · 9 regime

86¢69¢ current

Apr 161¢Apr 29

Analysis

12d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price unreliable despite the 37.5% implied yield on the Yes side. The 17¢ spread and asymmetric yields (530.8% on No versus 37.5% on Yes) suggest severe mispricing, likely reflecting minimal trading activity rather than genuine market consensus that Hathaway won't attend. With 259 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 4, this contract carries meaningful execution risk and should be approached cautiously until liquidity materializes.

Resolution rules

If Anne Hathaway attends The Met Gala 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 66.7%

IY (No) 330.5%

Adj IY 330%

CRI 2

RV 109%

VR 1.32

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	66.7%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	330.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	330%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	109%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	1.32	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.6/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	16.5%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

22¢

Computed

4/29/2026, 6:46:13 PM

Indicators computed 4/29/2026, 6:38:27 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXMETGALA-26-ANNE yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →