Will Ansem be on UpOnly Podcast before Jan 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 25% probability that Will Ansem be on UpOnly Podcast before Jan 2027?. This contract trades at 25¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This illiquid micro-market prices Ansem's podcast appearance at just 20%, but the Yes side offers an extraordinary 562% implied yield over 260 days, suggesting either severe underpricing or high uncertainty about resolution criteria.
Analysis
This illiquid micro-market prices Ansem's podcast appearance at just 20%, but the Yes side offers an extraordinary 562% implied yield over 260 days, suggesting either severe underpricing or high uncertainty about resolution criteria. The $194 open interest and $2 daily volume indicate minimal trading activity, making the 5¢ spread potentially misleading; the neutral regime and flat 7-day price action suggest the market hasn't attracted informed flow. The 4 Cliff Risk Index warrants caution, as binary outcomes near expiry can experience sharp repricing if new information emerges about Ansem's podcast appearances or UpOnly's guest schedule.
Also on polymarket at 13¢(Δ +12¢)
Resolution rules
If Ansem is on the UpOnly Podcast before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXUPONLY-01-ANSE yes 100