Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Apr 1, 2028?
Prediction markets currently give a 55% probability that Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Apr 1, 2028?. This contract trades at 55¢ on Kalshi, closing April 1, 2028. The market prices a 53% probability of an AGI announcement by April 2028, reflecting genuine uncertainty about both technical feasibility and definition disputes, though the extremely high realized volatility of 289% and vol ratio of 3.90 suggest significant price swings driven by AI breakthroughs or hype cycles rather than fundamental shifts.
Analysis
The market prices a 53% probability of an AGI announcement by April 2028, reflecting genuine uncertainty about both technical feasibility and definition disputes, though the extremely high realized volatility of 289% and vol ratio of 3.90 suggest significant price swings driven by AI breakthroughs or hype cycles rather than fundamental shifts. With only $1.89 in 24-hour volume against $2,077.52 open interest, liquidity is thin relative to position size, creating a 6¢ spread that could widen sharply on news; the neutral regime and modest 7-day price recovery from 46¢ to 49¢ indicate the market is digesting conflicting signals about near-term AI progress. The 0.8 information arrivals per hour suggest this market is actively tracking AI developments, making it sensitive to announcements from labs like OpenAI, DeepSeek, or Anthropic, though the definition of "officially announces" AGI remains a potential resolution flashpoint.
Resolution rules
If any company (public or private) officially announces that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) after market issuance and before Apr 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Regime
Trade
sf trade KXAGICO-COMP-28Q1 yes 100