Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Oct 1, 2026
Leader sits at 69% across 13 bound outcomes, runner-up at 68%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before Jan 1, 2031
Outcomes
13
winner-take-all
Runner-up
68¢
Before Jan 1, 2030
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$1K
modest
Closes
Jan 1, 2031
1674 days
Venue
Kalshi
13 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before
Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Jul 1, 2026?: Before Jul 1, 2026
KXAGICO-COMP-26Q2
Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Jan 1, 2029?: Before Jan 1, 2029
KXAGICO-COMP-28Q4
Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Jan 1, 2028?: Before Jan 1, 2028
KXAGICO-COMP-27Q4
Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027
KXAGICO-COMP-26Q4
Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Jul 1, 2028?: Before Jul 1, 2028
KXAGICO-COMP-28Q2
Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Jul 1, 2027?: Before Jul 1, 2027
KXAGICO-COMP-27Q2
Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Apr 1, 2028?: Before Apr 1, 2028
KXAGICO-COMP-28Q1
Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Apr 1, 2027?: Before Apr 1, 2027
KXAGICO-COMP-27Q1
Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Jan 1, 2031?: Before Jan 1, 2031
KXAGICO-COMP-30
Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Jan 1, 2030?: Before Jan 1, 2030
KXAGICO-COMP-29
Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Oct 1, 2028?: Before Oct 1, 2028
KXAGICO-COMP-28Q3
Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Oct 1, 2027?: Before Oct 1, 2027
KXAGICO-COMP-27Q3
Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Oct 1, 2026?: Before Oct 1, 2026
KXAGICO-COMP-26Q3
Analysis
This probability estimates the likelihood that any company will publicly declare it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence by October 1, 2026—roughly five months from now. At 33%, the market reflects skepticism that such an announcement is imminent, despite recent advances in large language models and AI capabilities. The current level reflects uncertainty about whether companies will claim AGI has been achieved versus achieved and deployed. Upward pressure would come from rapid capability breakthroughs or companies adopting a lower threshold for what constitutes AGI. Downward pressure stems from the lack of consensus definition for AGI and companies' historical reluctance to make definitive claims about achieving it. The main uncertainty driver is whether any organization—whether OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, or others—will make an explicit public announcement meeting the contract's criteria, as opposed to quietly advancing toward such capabilities.
- ›No company has yet publicly announced achieving AGI as of May 2026, despite sustained AI capability improvements
- ›The contract requires a formal announcement by a named company, not merely reaching technical capabilities behind closed doors
- ›Industry leaders have generally avoided claiming AGI achievement, instead using terms like 'advanced AI' or 'frontier models'
- ›The five-month timeframe is relatively short for such a transformative claim to move from internal assessment to public announcement
- ›Market prices for the October 2026 contract (33%) versus October 2027 contract (36%) show minimal probability shift despite a full additional year
What moved the line
- May 28Before Apr 1, 2028↓7pp53→46¢ · Kalshi
- May 30Before Jan 1, 2027↑5pp13→18¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 2Before Jul 1, 2028↓5pp56→51¢ · Kalshi
- May 26Before Oct 1, 2026↓4pp11→7¢ · Kalshi
- May 27Before Jan 1, 2031↓3pp71→68¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in technology
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- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap: <500Blast 4% · 8d
- SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap (Lowest Strikes): 1T+last 97% · 9d
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30last 3% · 9d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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