Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Oct 1, 2026
Leader sits at 77% across 12 bound outcomes, runner-up at 75%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before Oct 1, 2028
Outcomes
12
winner-take-all
Runner-up
75¢
Before Jul 1, 2028
Spread
2pp
contested
24h volume
$695
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2031
1564 days
Venue
Kalshi
12 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before
Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Oct 1, 2028?: Before Oct 1, 2028
KXAGICO-COMP-28Q3
Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Oct 1, 2026?: Before Oct 1, 2026
KXAGICO-COMP-26Q3
Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Jan 1, 2031?: Before Jan 1, 2031
KXAGICO-COMP-30
Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Jan 1, 2030?: Before Jan 1, 2030
KXAGICO-COMP-29
Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Jan 1, 2029?: Before Jan 1, 2029
KXAGICO-COMP-28Q4
Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Apr 1, 2027?: Before Apr 1, 2027
KXAGICO-COMP-27Q1
Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Jan 1, 2028?: Before Jan 1, 2028
KXAGICO-COMP-27Q4
Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Jul 1, 2028?: Before Jul 1, 2028
KXAGICO-COMP-28Q2
Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Apr 1, 2028?: Before Apr 1, 2028
KXAGICO-COMP-28Q1
Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Oct 1, 2027?: Before Oct 1, 2027
KXAGICO-COMP-27Q3
Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Jul 1, 2027?: Before Jul 1, 2027
KXAGICO-COMP-27Q2
Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027
KXAGICO-COMP-26Q4
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that at least one company will publicly declare achieving AGI—artificial general intelligence capable of performing most intellectual tasks at human level or beyond—within the next three months. The 75% estimate is notably higher than the 5¢ Kalshi contract price suggests, indicating confidence among some market participants. The main driver of this elevated probability is recent progress in large language models and multimodal AI systems, combined with competitive pressure among leading labs to claim AGI status. However, the extremely low trading volume ($2 in 24 hours) and wide spread between this question and the Jan 1, 2027 version (10¢) suggest limited consensus. Key uncertainties include the definition of AGI itself—no consensus exists on measurable benchmarks—and whether companies will use the term in official announcements despite definitional ambiguity. The probability could shift dramatically based on announced AI capabilities or leadership statements in the coming weeks.
- ›Current leading AI labs (OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, others) have not made AGI claims in official announcements as of early July 2026, despite rapid capability gains
- ›The definition of AGI remains contested; no standardized test or benchmark widely accepted by the field determines when AGI has been achieved
- ›Market pricing shows sharp probability drops for Jan 1, 2027 (10¢) and beyond, suggesting most probability mass is concentrated in the next 12 weeks rather than distributed across 2026-2027
- ›Trading volume is extremely low ($2 in 24h), indicating limited market participation and potential for large price swings from small new information
- ›Company incentives to claim AGI are mixed: prestige and competitive advantage compete against reputational risk if claims are later disputed or overturned
What moved the line
- Sep 17Before Jan 1, 2031↓41pp85→44¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Before Jan 1, 2031↑33pp44→77¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Before Jan 1, 2030↓31pp87→56¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Before Jan 1, 2029↓16pp82→66¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Before Apr 1, 2028↓15pp76→61¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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