Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Jul 1, 2028?
Prediction markets currently give a 56% probability that Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Jul 1, 2028?. This contract trades at 56¢ on Kalshi, closing July 1, 2028. The market is pricing a 56% probability of an AGI announcement by mid-2028, reflecting significant uncertainty despite the relatively long 806-day timeframe—notably, the price has risen 12% over the past week (43¢ to 48¢), suggesting growing conviction among traders.
Analysis
The market is pricing a 56% probability of an AGI announcement by mid-2028, reflecting significant uncertainty despite the relatively long 806-day timeframe—notably, the price has risen 12% over the past week (43¢ to 48¢), suggesting growing conviction among traders. However, the extremely thin liquidity ($0 24h volume, $1,036 open interest) and wide 8¢ spread indicate this is a speculative niche market where prices may not reflect deep consensus, and the 49% implied yield on the Yes side suggests traders are pricing in substantial tail risk premium for such a transformative event.
Resolution rules
If any company (public or private) officially announces that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) after market issuance and before Jul 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Trade
sf trade KXAGICO-COMP-28Q2 yes 100