Before Oct 1, 2026 · Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before
Before Oct 1, 2026 is priced at 6¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 6¢ bid, 7¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #12 of 13 inside Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before.
Price history
6¢ current
+2¢Contract brief
If any company (public or private) officially announces that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) after market issuance and before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Before Oct 1, 2026
Rank
#12 of 13
Leader
Before Jan 1, 2031 69¢
Range
1¢-69¢
Family volume
$220
Identifier
KXAGICO-COMP-26Q3
Jun 8, 2026, 3:38 AM UTC · 28m ago
Implied probability
Bid
6¢
Ask
7¢
Spread
1¢
Reported volume
$7K
Family rank
#12 of 13
13 outcomes · Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before
Closes
Oct 1, 2026
Family volume
$220
Orderbook snapshot
6 / 7¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If any company (public or private) officially announces that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) after market issuance and before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Oct 1, 2026
Identifier
KXAGICO-COMP-26Q3
Event family
Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$220
Outcomes
13
Highest price
Before Jan 1, 2031 69¢
Current share
0%
Before Jan 1, 2031
kalshi · KXAGICO-COMP-30
Before Jan 1, 2030
kalshi · KXAGICO-COMP-29
Before Jan 1, 2029
kalshi · KXAGICO-COMP-28Q4
Before Oct 1, 2028
kalshi · KXAGICO-COMP-28Q3
Before Jul 1, 2028
kalshi · KXAGICO-COMP-28Q2
Before Apr 1, 2028
kalshi · KXAGICO-COMP-28Q1
Before Jan 1, 2028
kalshi · KXAGICO-COMP-27Q4
Before Oct 1, 2027
kalshi · KXAGICO-COMP-27Q3
Before Jul 1, 2027
kalshi · KXAGICO-COMP-27Q2
Before Apr 1, 2027
kalshi · KXAGICO-COMP-27Q1
Before Jan 1, 2027
kalshi · KXAGICO-COMP-26Q4
Before Oct 1, 2026
kalshi · KXAGICO-COMP-26Q3
Before Jul 1, 2026
kalshi · KXAGICO-COMP-26Q2
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
maker
Score
0.295
Observability
none
Event type
scientific
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
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