What is the current probability for "Will Braden Rumfelt win American Idol Season 24 (ABC Season 9)?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 4¢ (4% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on January 7, 2027. 260 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Braden Rumfelt win American Idol Season 24 (ABC Season 9)?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 4545.8% and 4.3% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Braden Rumfelt win American Idol Season 24 (ABC Season 9)?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Braden Rumfelt win American Idol Season 24 (ABC Season 9)?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Will Braden Rumfelt win American Idol Season 24 (ABC Season 9)?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Kalshi, closing January 7, 2027. Braden Rumfelt's odds have collapsed 39% over the past week (from 18¢ to 11¢), suggesting either new information about his performance or shifting market sentiment among bettors.

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4¢

Bid/Ask 3/4¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $1,497.7·OI $39,289.84·Closes Jan 7, 2027·260d remaining

KXAMERICANIDOL-26DEC31-BRA

7-day price64 snapshots · 47 regime

18¢3¢ current

Apr 82¢Apr 22

Analysis

5d ago

Braden Rumfelt's odds have collapsed 39% over the past week (from 18¢ to 11¢), suggesting either new information about his performance or shifting market sentiment among bettors. The extreme 1111.7% implied yield on Yes positions reflects the asymmetric risk-reward typical of long-shot bets, though the thin $46.23 daily volume and modest $35,119.93 open interest indicate this is a low-liquidity niche market with limited price discovery. With 266 days until resolution and a tight 1¢ spread, this appears to be a speculative position rather than an efficiently priced prediction.

Cross-venue

Also on polymarket at 7¢(Δ -3¢)

View counterpart →Match confidence 0.78IY 26949.5%Close-time delta 5799h

Resolution rules

If Braden Rumfelt is officially declared the winner of American Idol Season 24 (ABC Season 9), then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 4545.8%

IY (No) 4.3%

Adj IY 1515%

CRI 32

Overround -0.1%

LAS 0.33

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	4545.8%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	4.3%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	1515%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	32	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.33	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.341

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/23/2026, 12:16:40 AM

Observability mediumEvent type cultural

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/23/2026, 12:08:24 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXAMERICANIDOL-26DEC31-BRA yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →