Will Carlos Alcaraz compete in an ATP match before January 20, 2027
Leader sits at 94% across 8 bound outcomes, runner-up at 89%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before January 20, 2027
Outcomes
8
winner-take-all
Runner-up
89¢
Before December 15, 2026
Spread
5pp
contested
24h volume
$414
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 26, 2027
244 days
Venue
Kalshi
8 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Carlos Alcaraz compete in an ATP match before
Will Carlos Alcaraz compete in an ATP match before November 15, 2026?: Before November 15, 2026
KXATPRETURN-27-ALC-1115
Will Carlos Alcaraz compete in an ATP match before November 1, 2026?: Before November 1, 2026
KXATPRETURN-27-ALC-111
Will Carlos Alcaraz compete in an ATP match before August 15, 2026?: Before August 15, 2026
KXATPRETURN-27-ALC-815
Will Carlos Alcaraz compete in an ATP match before December 15, 2026?: Before December 15, 2026
KXATPRETURN-27-ALC-1215
Will Carlos Alcaraz compete in an ATP match before October 1, 2026?: Before October 1, 2026
KXATPRETURN-27-ALC-101
Will Carlos Alcaraz compete in an ATP match before July 18, 2026?: Before July 18, 2026
KXATPRETURN-27-ALC-718
Will Carlos Alcaraz compete in an ATP match before January 20, 2027?: Before January 20, 2027
KXATPRETURN-27-ALC-120
Will Carlos Alcaraz compete in an ATP match before September 1, 2026?: Before September 1, 2026
KXATPRETURN-27-ALC-901
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectation that Carlos Alcaraz will not return to professional ATP competition within the next seven months. The 30% assessment suggests significant uncertainty about the Spanish player's availability through January 2027, likely driven by an undisclosed injury or medical issue requiring extended recovery time. Markets would reprice upward if Alcaraz announces a return date or participates in warm-up tournaments; prices would fall if official statements confirm prolonged absence or a more serious condition emerges. The key catalyst is any official statement from Alcaraz's team regarding his competitive timeline, which could come at any point but often follows medical clearance procedures in professional tennis.
- ›Alcaraz's last known competitive appearance and any official injury announcements from his camp affect baseline expectations for recovery duration
- ›Scheduled ATP tour events and Grand Slam tournaments between now and January 20, 2027 (including US Open, ATP Masters 1000 series, and year-end championships) provide natural decision points for return eligibility
- ›Comparison with historical recovery timelines for similar injuries in elite tennis offers context for how long top-ranked players typically remain sidelined
- ›Volume and pricing consistency across multiple resolution dates (October through January) reveal whether uncertainty is primarily about whether he returns or when he returns
- ›Any appearance in lower-level qualifying events, exhibition matches, or practice tournaments would suggest accelerating readiness before official ATP competition
What moved the line
- May 21Before January 20, 2027↑40pp56→96¢ · Kalshi
- May 21Before December 15, 2026↑38pp33→71¢ · Kalshi
- May 24Before August 15, 2026↓36pp69→33¢ · Kalshi
- May 23Before August 15, 2026↑32pp37→69¢ · Kalshi
- May 21Before November 15, 2026↑31pp33→64¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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