Will Chelsea finish in the top 6 in the 2025-26 English Premier League season?
Prediction markets currently give a 29% probability that Will Chelsea finish in the top 6 in the 2025-26 English Premier League season?. This contract trades at 29¢ on Kalshi, closing May 25, 2026. This market shows a dramatic 49-cent cross-venue arbitrage gap between Kalshi's 66¢ and Polymarket's 17¢, suggesting significant disagreement or liquidity constraints across platforms.
Analysis
This market shows a dramatic 49-cent cross-venue arbitrage gap between Kalshi's 66¢ and Polymarket's 17¢, suggesting significant disagreement or liquidity constraints across platforms. The extremely high implied yield on the "No" side (1779%) combined with minimal 24-hour volume of $63 and low open interest of $6,985 indicates thin liquidity and potential mispricing, particularly given the 38-day window remaining until resolution. The 7-day price decline from 71¢ to 65¢ and elevated realized volatility of 234% suggest recent downward momentum, though the neutral regime score and tight 2¢ spread provide limited directional conviction.
Also on polymarket at —¢
Resolution rules
If Chelsea is a Top 6 Finisher in the 2025-26 English Premier League season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXEPLTOP6-26-CHE yes 100