Will Cleveland win at least 70 games this season?
Prediction markets currently give a 89% probability that Will Cleveland win at least 70 games this season?. This contract trades at 89¢ on Kalshi, closing November 8, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $11 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 89¢ price potentially unreliable despite the narrow 16¢ spread.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $11 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 89¢ price potentially unreliable despite the narrow 16¢ spread. The asymmetric implied yields—50.2% for Yes versus 630.8% for No—suggest severe mispricing, with the No side offering outsized compensation for tail risk that may not justify the 11% probability. The sharp 14¢ price rally over seven days combined with elevated realized volatility (115%) and a 4/10 Cliff Risk Index indicates this thin market is vulnerable to sudden repricing as the November 2026 expiration approaches with 205 days remaining.
Resolution rules
If Cleveland has 70+ wins in the 2026 pro baseball team regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXMLBWINS-CLE-26-T70 yes 100