CPI rise more than 0.4% in August 2026
Above 0.4% is priced at 34¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 33¢ bid, 42¢ ask, 9¢ spread. This outcome ranks #6 of 7 inside Will CPI rise more than.
Price history
34¢ current
+7¢Contract brief
If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 0.4% (single-decimal) in August 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Above 0.4%
Rank
#6 of 7
Leader
Above -0.1% 81¢
Range
27¢-81¢
Family volume
$265
Identifier
KXCPI-26AUG-T0.4
May 24, 2026, 7:08 PM UTC · 19m ago
Implied probability
Bid
33¢
Ask
42¢
Spread
9¢
24h volume
$34
Family rank
#6 of 7
7 outcomes · Will CPI rise more than
Closes
Sep 11, 2026
Family volume
$265
Orderbook snapshot
33 / 42¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 0.4% (single-decimal) in August 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Sep 11, 2026
Identifier
KXCPI-26AUG-T0.4
Event family
Will CPI rise more than.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$265
Outcomes
7
Highest price
Above -0.1% 81¢
Current share
26%
Above -0.1%
kalshi · KXCPI-26AUG-T-0.1
Above 0.0%
kalshi · KXCPI-26AUG-T0.0
Above 0.1%
kalshi · KXCPI-26AUG-T0.1
Above 0.2%
kalshi · KXCPI-26AUG-T0.2
Above 0.3%
kalshi · KXCPI-26AUG-T0.3
Above 0.4%
kalshi · KXCPI-26AUG-T0.4
Above 0.5%
kalshi · KXCPI-26AUG-T0.5
Browse this series
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
taker
Score
0.635
Observability
high
Event type
data_release
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.