SimpleFunctions

Markets · Series

CPI Month-over-Month Forecast Markets — pricing the ladder, 48 thresholds.

48 live Kalshi contracts (58 audited). Median implied probability sits at 62%. 24 contracts moved 5cents+ in the last 24h (biggest: KXCPI-26JUL-T0.1 +78c). 31 contracts carry a live SF thesis. Refreshed every 5 minutes.

Analytics view (term structure, fitted hazard rate, per-bucket deviations): /yield-curves/KXCPI.

Series JSON twin
GET/api/public/markets/series/KXCPI
Term curve JSON
GET/api/public/yield-curves/KXCPI
›example response
{
  "scope": {
    "type": "series",
    "slug": "KXCPI",
    "label": "CPI Month-over-Month Forecast Markets"
  },
  "live": {
    "contractCount": 48,
    "volume24hSum": 3651.17,
    "hasThesisCount": 31
  },
  "termFit": null
}
By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 24 May 2026Methodology
Disagreement≥100
Vol Flow$3.7K-31%
min $1.2Kmax $11.0K
Breadth0%0.0pp
min -33%max 33%
Activity—
warming up — first reading at 02:00 UTC
May 17past 6d · UTCMay 24 · 00:23

Live contracts

48

Median IY

62¢

implied prob (YES)

24h volume

$3.7K

Days to catalyst

18

min daysToEvent

SF thesis coverage

31

Bucket count

48

thresholds fitted

Threshold ladder — 48 contracts at one resolution

Mean fit deviation 0.9pp
0%25%50%75%100%implied EV ≈ 0.15-0.100.20.30.51cdfsurvivalimplied EV

Bars ordered by threshold ascending. Pink = cheapest vs hazard fit; purple = richest. Solid emerald = cumulative implied probability; dashed zinc = survival; dashed amber = implied EV.

Top markets in CPI Month-over-Month Forecast Markets

Showing top 20 of 48

Sortable on every numeric column. Every row carries the SF indicator stack — bounded for readability, raw value on hover.

Will CPI rise more than 0.5% in September 2026?: Above 0.5%19¢
IY >999%Cliff 4Edge +12¢RVol 728%Resid +2$605thesis ◆
Will CPI rise more than 0.5% in November 2026?: Above 0.5%28¢
IY 468%Cliff 3Edge +13¢RVol 623%Resid +2$419thesis ◆
Will CPI rise more than 0.5% in October 2026?: Above 0.5%27¢
IY 579%Cliff 3Edge —RVol 487%Resid +2$410
Will CPI rise more than 0.4% in September 2026?: Above 0.4%27¢
IY 688%Cliff 3Edge +12¢RVol —Resid —$254thesis ◆
Will CPI rise more than 0.3% in June 2026?: Above 0.3%68¢
IY 334%Cliff 2Edge -9¢RVol —Resid —$226thesis ◆
Will CPI rise more than 0.5% in May 2026?: Above 0.5%54¢
IY >999%Cliff 1Edge -13¢RVol 301%Resid 0$197thesis ◆
Will CPI rise more than 0.7% in May 2026?: Above 0.7%6¢
IY >999%Cliff 16Edge +36¢RVol >999%Resid +1$176thesis ◆
Will CPI rise more than 0.5% in August 2026?: Above 0.5%26¢
IY 941%Cliff 3Edge +19¢RVol —Resid —$151thesis ◆
Will CPI rise more than 1.0% in May 2026?: Above 1.0%4¢
IY >999%Cliff 24Edge —RVol —Resid —$150
Will CPI rise more than 0.3% in September 2026?: Above 0.3%43¢
IY 337%Cliff 1Edge +18¢RVol —Resid —$132thesis ◆
Will CPI rise more than 0.6% in May 2026?: Above 0.6%18¢
IY >999%Cliff 5Edge +17¢RVol >999%Resid +2$115thesis ◆
Will CPI rise more than 0.8% in May 2026?: Above 0.8%4¢
IY >999%Cliff 24Edge —RVol >999%Resid 0$111
Will CPI rise more than 0.4% in May 2026?: Above 0.4%85¢
IY 369%Cliff 6Edge -44¢RVol 109%Resid 0$90thesis ◆
Will CPI rise more than 0.3% in November 2026?: Above 0.3%48¢
IY 197%Cliff 1Edge -8¢RVol 235%Resid +1$83thesis ◆
Will CPI rise more than 0.2% in November 2026?: Above 0.2%63¢
IY 107%Cliff 2Edge +5¢RVol —Resid —$77thesis ◆
Will CPI rise more than 0.4% in August 2026?: Above 0.4%33¢
IY 671%Cliff 2Edge +12¢RVol 310%Resid +1$68thesis ◆
Will CPI rise more than 0.3% in October 2026?: Above 0.3%44¢
IY 272%Cliff 1Edge +14¢RVol —Resid —$66thesis ◆
Will CPI rise more than 0.5% in June 2026?: Above 0.5%41¢
IY >999%Cliff 1Edge -11¢RVol —Resid —$52thesis ◆
Will CPI rise more than 0.3% in May 2026?: Above 0.3%94¢
IY 134%Cliff 16Edge -35¢RVol —Resid —$51thesis ◆
Will CPI rise more than 0.4% in June 2026?: Above 0.4%58¢
IY 514%Cliff 1Edge -18¢RVol 277%Resid +1$48thesis ◆
48 contracts total · sort any columnFull set on /screen →

Biggest movers, 24h, in CPI Month-over-Month Forecast Markets

From market_changes
23h agoKalshi
Will CPI rise more than 0.1% in July 2026?: Above 0.1%
80¢2→80 (+78)
open →
23h agoKalshi
Will CPI rise more than 0.1% in July 2026?: Above 0.1%
2¢80→2 (-78)
open →
23h agoKalshi
Will CPI rise more than 0.3% in July 2026?: Above 0.3%
3¢35→3 (-32)
open →
23h agoKalshi
Will CPI rise more than 0.3% in July 2026?: Above 0.3%
35¢3→35 (+32)
open →
23h agoKalshi
Will CPI rise more than 0.2% in July 2026?: Above 0.2%
70¢45→70 (+25)
open →
23h agoKalshi
Will CPI rise more than 0.2% in July 2026?: Above 0.2%
45¢70→45 (-25)
open →
12h agoKalshi
Will CPI rise more than 0.6% in May 2026?: Above 0.6%
15¢27→15 (-12)
open →
12h agoKalshi
Will CPI rise more than 0.6% in May 2026?: Above 0.6%
26¢15→26 (+11)
open →

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 24 May 2026 01:38:23 GMT.

Term-structure analytics

Probability vs tenor curve and per-bucket deviation analysis. /yield-curves/KXCPI →

Category view

All Kalshi Economics markets. /markets/category/economics →

Venue view

Everything on Kalshi. /markets/venue/kalshi →

JSON API

Same data, machine-readable. twin endpoint →