SimpleFunctions

Markets · Series

CPI Month-over-Month Forecast Markets — pricing the ladder, 32 thresholds.

32 live Kalshi contracts (58 audited). Median implied probability sits at 55%. 37 contracts moved 5cents+ in the last 24h (biggest: KXCPI-26NOV-T0.0 -61c). 15 contracts carry a live SF thesis. Refreshed every 5 minutes.

Analytics view (term structure, fitted hazard rate, per-bucket deviations): /yield-curves/KXCPI.

Series JSON twin
GET/api/public/markets/series/KXCPI
Term curve JSON
GET/api/public/yield-curves/KXCPI
›example response
{
  "scope": {
    "type": "series",
    "slug": "KXCPI",
    "label": "CPI Month-over-Month Forecast Markets"
  },
  "live": {
    "contractCount": 32,
    "volume24hSum": 5891.12,
    "hasThesisCount": 15
  },
  "termFit": null
}
By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 20 Aug 2026Methodology
Disagreement≥100
Vol Flow$5.9K-44%
min $438max $76.9K
Breadth-8%-28.1pp
min -100%max 100%
Activity—
warming up — first reading at 10:00 UTC
Aug 13past 7d · UTCAug 20 · 08:23

Live contracts

32

Median IY

55¢

implied prob (YES)

24h volume

$5.9K

Days to catalyst

26

min daysToEvent

SF thesis coverage

15

Bucket count

32

thresholds fitted

Threshold ladder — 32 contracts at one resolution

Mean fit deviation 1.6pp
0%25%50%75%100%implied EV ≈ 0.00-0.4-0.10.10.20.40.9cdfsurvivalimplied EV

Bars ordered by threshold ascending. Pink = cheapest vs hazard fit; purple = richest. Solid emerald = cumulative implied probability; dashed zinc = survival; dashed amber = implied EV.

Top markets in CPI Month-over-Month Forecast Markets

Showing top 20 of 32

Sortable on every numeric column. Every row carries the SF indicator stack — bounded for readability, raw value on hover.

Will CPI rise more than 0.2% in August 2026?: Above 0.2%85¢
IY 291%Cliff 6Edge -38¢RVol —Resid —$2.3Kthesis ◆
Will CPI rise more than 0.3% in August 2026?: Above 0.3%65¢
IY 889%Cliff 2Edge -20¢RVol 274%Resid +1$1.9Kthesis ◆
Will CPI rise more than 0.4% in August 2026?: Above 0.4%19¢
IY >999%Cliff 4Edge +33¢RVol >999%Resid +1$741thesis ◆
Will CPI rise more than 0.5% in August 2026?: Above 0.5%10¢
IY >999%Cliff 9Edge +44¢RVol >999%Resid +2$501thesis ◆
Will CPI rise more than 0.1% in August 2026?: Above 0.1%91¢
IY 163%Cliff 10Edge -8¢RVol 574%Resid +4$322thesis ◆
Will CPI rise more than 0.6% in August 2026?: Above 0.6%4¢
IY >999%Cliff 24Edge —RVol —Resid —$55
Will CPI rise more than 0.1% in November 2026?: Above 0.1%52¢
IY 300%Cliff 1Edge -14¢RVol —Resid —$18thesis ◆
Will CPI rise more than 0.5% in September 2026?: Above 0.5%50¢
IY 662%Cliff 1Edge -64¢RVol —Resid —$17thesis ◆
Will CPI rise more than 0.2% in November 2026?: Above 0.2%32¢
IY 692%Cliff 2Edge -18¢RVol —Resid —$5thesis ◆
Will CPI rise more than -0.4% in August 2026?: Above -0.4%68¢
IY 777%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$5
Will CPI rise more than 0.5% in October 2026?: Above 0.5%39¢
IY 695%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$4
Will CPI rise more than 0.3% in November 2026?: Above 0.3%11¢
IY >999%Cliff 8Edge —RVol —Resid —$1
Will CPI rise more than 0.3% in October 2026?: Above 0.3%10¢
IY >999%Cliff 9Edge +11¢RVol —Resid —$1thesis ◆
Will CPI rise more than -0.4% in September 2026?: Above -0.4%71¢
IY 270%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will CPI rise more than 0.0% in September 2026?: Above 0.0%57¢
IY 500%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will CPI rise more than 0.1% in September 2026?: Above 0.1%61¢
IY 423%Cliff 2Edge -22¢RVol —Resid —$0thesis ◆
Will CPI rise more than 0.2% in September 2026?: Above 0.2%41¢
IY 953%Cliff 1Edge -17¢RVol —Resid —$0thesis ◆
Will CPI rise more than 0.3% in September 2026?: Above 0.3%16¢
IY >999%Cliff 5Edge -27¢RVol —Resid —$0thesis ◆
Will CPI rise more than 0.4% in September 2026?: Above 0.4%10¢
IY >999%Cliff 9Edge -56¢RVol —Resid —$0thesis ◆
Will CPI rise more than -0.1% in October 2026?: Above -0.1%66¢
IY 229%Cliff 2Edge —RVol >999%Resid +14$0
32 contracts total · sort any columnFull set on /screen →

Biggest movers, 24h, in CPI Month-over-Month Forecast Markets

From market_changes
43m agoKalshi
Will CPI rise more than 0.0% in November 2026?: Above 0.0%
63¢2→63 (+61)
open →
22h agoKalshi
Will CPI rise more than 0.0% in November 2026?: Above 0.0%
3¢64→3 (-61)
open →
2h agoKalshi
Will CPI rise more than 0.0% in November 2026?: Above 0.0%
2¢63→2 (-61)
open →
21h agoKalshi
Will CPI rise more than 0.0% in November 2026?: Above 0.0%
64¢4→64 (+60)
open →
21h agoKalshi
Will CPI rise more than 0.0% in November 2026?: Above 0.0%
5¢64→5 (-59)
open →
20h agoKalshi
Will CPI rise more than 0.0% in November 2026?: Above 0.0%
64¢5→64 (+59)
open →
17h agoKalshi
Will CPI rise more than 0.5% in September 2026?: Above 0.5%
50¢98→50 (-48)
open →
13h agoKalshi
Will CPI rise more than 0.5% in October 2026?: Above 0.5%
39¢1→39 (+38)
open →

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 20 Aug 2026 09:38:42 GMT.

Term-structure analytics

Probability vs tenor curve and per-bucket deviation analysis. /yield-curves/KXCPI →

Category view

All Kalshi Economics markets. /markets/category/economics →

Venue view

Everything on Kalshi. /markets/venue/kalshi →

JSON API

Same data, machine-readable. twin endpoint →