SimpleFunctions

Markets · Series

CPI Month-over-Month Forecast Markets — pricing the ladder, 41 thresholds.

41 live Kalshi contracts (58 audited). Median implied probability sits at 39%. 38 contracts moved 5cents+ in the last 24h (biggest: KXCPI-26JUL-T-0.1 +34c). 29 contracts carry a live SF thesis. Refreshed every 5 minutes.

Analytics view (term structure, fitted hazard rate, per-bucket deviations): /yield-curves/KXCPI.

Series JSON twin
GET/api/public/markets/series/KXCPI
Term curve JSON
GET/api/public/yield-curves/KXCPI
›example response
{
  "scope": {
    "type": "series",
    "slug": "KXCPI",
    "label": "CPI Month-over-Month Forecast Markets"
  },
  "live": {
    "contractCount": 41,
    "volume24hSum": 31868.61,
    "hasThesisCount": 29
  },
  "termFit": null
}
By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 09 Jul 2026Methodology
Disagreement≥100
Vol Flow$31.9K+135%
min $1.1Kmax $36.3K
Breadth5%+100.0pp
min -100%max 29%
Activity—
warming up — first reading at 07:45 UTC
Jul 2past 7d · UTCJul 9 · 06:23

Live contracts

41

Median IY

39¢

implied prob (YES)

24h volume

$31.9K

Days to catalyst

5

min daysToEvent

SF thesis coverage

29

Bucket count

41

thresholds fitted

Threshold ladder — 41 contracts at one resolution

Mean fit deviation 1.4pp
0%25%50%75%100%implied EV ≈ 0.05-0.3-0.10.10.20.40.5cdfsurvivalimplied EV

Bars ordered by threshold ascending. Pink = cheapest vs hazard fit; purple = richest. Solid emerald = cumulative implied probability; dashed zinc = survival; dashed amber = implied EV.

Top markets in CPI Month-over-Month Forecast Markets

Showing top 20 of 41

Sortable on every numeric column. Every row carries the SF indicator stack — bounded for readability, raw value on hover.

Will CPI rise more than -0.3% in June 2026?: Above -0.3%85¢
IY >999%Cliff 6Edge +3¢RVol 192%Resid -3$14.8Kthesis ◆
Will CPI rise more than 0.2% in July 2026?: Above 0.2%19¢
IY >999%Cliff 4Edge +14¢RVol >999%Resid +2$6.9Kthesis ◆
Will CPI rise more than -0.2% in June 2026?: Above -0.2%32¢
IY >999%Cliff 2Edge +53¢RVol 455%Resid -3$3.9Kthesis ◆
Will CPI rise more than 0.0% in June 2026?: Above 0.0%3¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol —Resid —$3.2K
Will CPI rise more than -0.1% in June 2026?: Above -0.1%11¢
IY >999%Cliff 8Edge +72¢RVol 551%Resid -3$2.3Kthesis ◆
Will CPI rise more than 0.2% in August 2026?: Above 0.2%25¢
IY >999%Cliff 3Edge —RVol —Resid —$237
Will CPI rise more than 0.0% in July 2026?: Above 0.0%37¢
IY >999%Cliff 2Edge +13¢RVol 870%Resid -2$216thesis ◆
Will CPI rise more than 0.4% in July 2026?: Above 0.4%3¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge +45¢RVol >999%Resid -2$80thesis ◆
Will CPI rise more than -0.1% in July 2026?: Above -0.1%47¢
IY >999%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$60
Will CPI rise more than 0.2% in September 2026?: Above 0.2%55¢
IY 307%Cliff 1Edge +16¢RVol —Resid —$36thesis ◆
Will CPI rise more than 0.3% in September 2026?: Above 0.3%45¢
IY 459%Cliff 1Edge +28¢RVol —Resid —$36thesis ◆
Will CPI rise more than 0.1% in July 2026?: Above 0.1%26¢
IY >999%Cliff 3Edge +44¢RVol —Resid —$32thesis ◆
Will CPI rise more than 0.5% in July 2026?: Above 0.5%3¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge +46¢RVol >999%Resid -2$30thesis ◆
Will CPI rise more than 0.0% in September 2026?: Above 0.0%76¢
IY 119%Cliff 3Edge +14¢RVol —Resid —$25thesis ◆
Will CPI rise more than 0.4% in September 2026?: Above 0.4%29¢
IY 919%Cliff 2Edge +14¢RVol 472%Resid -2$19thesis ◆
Will CPI rise more than 0.2% in November 2026?: Above 0.2%53¢
IY 210%Cliff 1Edge +16¢RVol —Resid —$9thesis ◆
Will CPI rise more than 0.1% in November 2026?: Above 0.1%67¢
IY 117%Cliff 2Edge +16¢RVol —Resid —$9thesis ◆
Will CPI rise more than -0.2% in July 2026?: Above -0.2%55¢
IY 873%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$6
Will CPI rise more than -0.3% in July 2026?: Above -0.3%75¢
IY 356%Cliff 3Edge —RVol —Resid —$4
Will CPI rise more than 0.5% in November 2026?: Above 0.5%18¢
IY >999%Cliff 5Edge +21¢RVol —Resid —$4thesis ◆
41 contracts total · sort any columnFull set on /screen →

Biggest movers, 24h, in CPI Month-over-Month Forecast Markets

From market_changes
14h agoKalshi
Will CPI rise more than -0.1% in July 2026?: Above -0.1%
47¢13→47 (+34)
open →
15m agoKalshi
Will CPI rise more than 0.3% in August 2026?: Above 0.3%
32¢3→32 (+29)
open →
5h agoKalshi
Will CPI rise more than -0.3% in July 2026?: Above -0.3%
75¢50→75 (+25)
open →
16h agoKalshi
Will CPI rise more than -0.3% in July 2026?: Above -0.3%
50¢75→50 (-25)
open →
3h agoKalshi
Will CPI rise more than 0.3% in August 2026?: Above 0.3%
3¢24→3 (-21)
open →
17h agoKalshi
Will CPI rise more than -0.2% in July 2026?: Above -0.2%
50¢30→50 (+20)
open →
2h agoKalshi
Will CPI rise more than 0.2% in July 2026?: Above 0.2%
17¢36→17 (-19)
open →
7h agoKalshi
Will CPI rise more than 0.2% in July 2026?: Above 0.2%
37¢19→37 (+18)
open →

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 09 Jul 2026 07:08:42 GMT.

Term-structure analytics

Probability vs tenor curve and per-bucket deviation analysis. /yield-curves/KXCPI →

Category view

All Kalshi Economics markets. /markets/category/economics →

Venue view

Everything on Kalshi. /markets/venue/kalshi →

JSON API

Same data, machine-readable. twin endpoint →