CPI rise more than 0.4% in May 2026
Above 0.4% is priced at 88¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 85¢ bid, 88¢ ask, 3¢ spread. This outcome ranks #8 of 14 inside Will CPI rise more than.
Price history
88¢ current
+61¢Contract brief
If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 0.4% (single-decimal) in May 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Above 0.4%
Rank
#8 of 14
Leader
Above -0.3% 99¢
Range
2¢-99¢
Family volume
$1K
Identifier
KXCPI-26MAY-T0.4
May 23, 2026, 9:38 PM UTC · 13m ago
Implied probability
Bid
85¢
Ask
88¢
Spread
3¢
24h volume
$117
Family rank
#8 of 14
14 outcomes · Will CPI rise more than
Closes
Jun 10, 2026
Family volume
$1K
Orderbook snapshot
85 / 88¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 0.4% (single-decimal) in May 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jun 10, 2026
Identifier
KXCPI-26MAY-T0.4
Event family
Will CPI rise more than.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$1K
Outcomes
14
Highest price
Above -0.3% 99¢
Current share
9%
Above -0.3%
kalshi · KXCPI-26MAY-T-0.3
Above -0.2%
kalshi · KXCPI-26MAY-T-0.2
Above 0.1%
kalshi · KXCPI-26MAY-T0.1
Above 0.0%
kalshi · KXCPI-26MAY-T0.0
Above 0.2%
kalshi · KXCPI-26MAY-T0.2
Above -0.1%
kalshi · KXCPI-26MAY-T-0.1
Above 0.3%
kalshi · KXCPI-26MAY-T0.3
Above 0.4%
kalshi · KXCPI-26MAY-T0.4
Above 0.5%
kalshi · KXCPI-26MAY-T0.5
Above 0.6%
kalshi · KXCPI-26MAY-T0.6
Above 0.7%
kalshi · KXCPI-26MAY-T0.7
Above 1.0%
kalshi · KXCPI-26MAY-T1.0
Above 0.8%
kalshi · KXCPI-26MAY-T0.8
Above 0.9%
kalshi · KXCPI-26MAY-T0.9
Browse this series
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
taker
Score
0.635
Observability
high
Event type
data_release
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.