Will CPI rise more than 0.4% in September 2026
Leader sits at 97% across 17 bound outcomes, runner-up at 97%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above -0.3%
Outcomes
17
winner-take-all
Runner-up
97¢
Above 0.4%
Spread
0pp
contested
24h volume
$33K
liquid
Closes
Dec 10, 2026
145 days
Venue
Kalshi
17 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will CPI rise more than
Will CPI rise more than 0.1% in July 2026?: Above 0.1%
KXCPI-26JUL-T0.1
Will CPI rise more than 0.2% in July 2026?: Above 0.2%
KXCPI-26JUL-T0.2
Will CPI rise more than 0.0% in July 2026?: Above 0.0%
KXCPI-26JUL-T0.0
Will CPI rise more than 0.3% in July 2026?: Above 0.3%
KXCPI-26JUL-T0.3
Will CPI rise more than -0.3% in July 2026?: Above -0.3%
KXCPI-26JUL-T-0.3
Will CPI rise more than -0.2% in July 2026?: Above -0.2%
KXCPI-26JUL-T-0.2
Will CPI rise more than -0.1% in July 2026?: Above -0.1%
KXCPI-26JUL-T-0.1
Will CPI rise more than 0.4% in October 2026?: Above 0.4%
KXCPI-26OCT-T0.4
Will CPI rise more than 0.0% in August 2026?: Above 0.0%
KXCPI-26AUG-T0.0
Will CPI rise more than 0.4% in August 2026?: Above 0.4%
KXCPI-26AUG-T0.4
Will CPI rise more than -0.1% in August 2026?: Above -0.1%
KXCPI-26AUG-T-0.1
Will CPI rise more than 0.0% in November 2026?: Above 0.0%
KXCPI-26NOV-T0.0
Will CPI rise more than -0.1% in November 2026?: Above -0.1%
KXCPI-26NOV-T-0.1
Will CPI rise more than 0.5% in August 2026?: Above 0.5%
KXCPI-26AUG-T0.5
Will CPI rise more than 0.3% in August 2026?: Above 0.3%
KXCPI-26AUG-T0.3
Will CPI rise more than 0.2% in August 2026?: Above 0.2%
KXCPI-26AUG-T0.2
Will CPI rise more than 0.1% in August 2026?: Above 0.1%
KXCPI-26AUG-T0.1
Analysis
The 90% probability reflects traders' expectations that the September 2026 Consumer Price Index will rise more than 0.4% month-over-month. This is a notably high confidence level, suggesting recent inflation data or economic conditions have pointed toward faster price increases rather than slower ones. The main factors driving this assessment are recent CPI prints in June and July 2026, which appear to show inflation momentum building rather than cooling, and current economic conditions including demand, supply constraints, or energy prices. The September CPI release (scheduled for early October 2026) will directly resolve this contract. Any significant change in inflation trajectory—whether from geopolitical shocks, energy market moves, or shifts in consumer demand—could shift probabilities before that release. Current implied expectations from mid-year data suggest the 0.4% threshold, while historically modest, represents a meaningful level of monthly price growth by recent standards.
- ›June 2026 CPI data showed prices rising at least 0.3% month-over-month, based on contract pricing suggesting most outcomes landed above -0.3%
- ›July 2026 CPI print is expected to show at least 0.0-0.1% monthly gain, indicating sustained inflation rather than deflation
- ›The 0.4% threshold is approximately double the post-2021 average monthly CPI gain, requiring notably elevated monthly price growth to resolve YES
- ›Energy prices and supply-chain conditions in August-September 2026 will directly influence the final CPI reading
- ›The September 2026 CPI release (early October 2026) is the only event that can resolve this contract; all current probability reflects inference from prior months' data
What moved the line
- Jul 15Above -0.2%↑71pp20→91¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 12Above -0.2%↓46pp65→19¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 16Above 0.0%↑35pp11→46¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 15Above 0.0%↑34pp25→59¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 16Above -0.1%↓28pp71→43¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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