Will CPI rise more than 0.4% in September 2026
Leader sits at 96% across 17 bound outcomes, runner-up at 85%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 0.3%
Outcomes
17
winner-take-all
Runner-up
85¢
Above -0.1%
Spread
11pp
contested
24h volume
$10K
liquid
Closes
Oct 14, 2026
129 days
Venue
Kalshi
17 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will CPI rise more than
Will CPI rise more than 0.5% in May 2026?: Above 0.5%
KXCPI-26MAY-T0.5
Will CPI rise more than 0.4% in May 2026?: Above 0.4%
KXCPI-26MAY-T0.4
Will CPI rise more than 0.3% in May 2026?: Above 0.3%
KXCPI-26MAY-T0.3
Will CPI rise more than 0.6% in May 2026?: Above 0.6%
KXCPI-26MAY-T0.6
Will CPI rise more than 0.3% in June 2026?: Above 0.3%
KXCPI-26JUN-T0.3
Will CPI rise more than 0.4% in July 2026?: Above 0.4%
KXCPI-26JUL-T0.4
Will CPI rise more than 0.1% in June 2026?: Above 0.1%
KXCPI-26JUN-T0.1
Will CPI rise more than 0.2% in July 2026?: Above 0.2%
KXCPI-26JUL-T0.2
Will CPI rise more than 0.4% in June 2026?: Above 0.4%
KXCPI-26JUN-T0.4
Will CPI rise more than -0.1% in June 2026?: Above -0.1%
KXCPI-26JUN-T-0.1
Will CPI rise more than 0.2% in June 2026?: Above 0.2%
KXCPI-26JUN-T0.2
Will CPI rise more than -0.1% in October 2026?: Above -0.1%
KXCPI-26OCT-T-0.1
Will CPI rise more than 0.4% in November 2026?: Above 0.4%
KXCPI-26NOV-T0.4
Will CPI rise more than 0.0% in November 2026?: Above 0.0%
KXCPI-26NOV-T0.0
Will CPI rise more than 0.0% in June 2026?: Above 0.0%
KXCPI-26JUN-T0.0
Will CPI rise more than -0.1% in November 2026?: Above -0.1%
KXCPI-26NOV-T-0.1
Will CPI rise more than 0.5% in July 2026?: Above 0.5%
KXCPI-26JUL-T0.5
Analysis
This probability indicates a 43% chance that the Consumer Price Index will increase more than 0.4% month-over-month in September 2026. The current assessment reflects recent inflation data from earlier in 2026, with related contracts showing varying probabilities for different CPI thresholds in April—the 0.4% barrier sits between the 82¢ price (suggesting ~82% odds) and lower thresholds priced higher. The main drivers are the trajectory of price pressures through summer 2026 and whether sticky inflation components persist or continue moderating. The September 2026 CPI release, scheduled for early October 2026, will be the decisive moment that resolves this contract. Markets are pricing in a roughly even split between months with CPI gains above 0.4% versus those at or below that level.
- ›Recent April 2026 CPI data shows 0.4% MoM rises priced at 82¢ on Kalshi, providing a near-term baseline for inflation momentum
- ›Energy and food price volatility through summer months typically influences whether monthly CPI prints exceed 0.4%, with seasonal factors affecting transportation and utility costs
- ›The 43% probability implies markets expect roughly 57% odds of CPI rising 0.4% or less in September, suggesting modest disinflationary bias six months out
- ›Core inflation trends and wage growth data between now and September will determine whether price pressures accelerate or decelerate toward autumn
- ›The September 2026 CPI report (released early October) is the single catalyst that will definitively resolve this contract
What moved the line
- Jun 5Above 0.2%↓28pp56→28¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 3Above 0.2%↓25pp62→37¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 5Above 0.3%↓24pp39→15¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 5Above 0.4%↓20pp28→8¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 4Above 0.2%↑19pp37→56¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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