SimpleFunctions

↑ $105 · Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of June

↑ $105 is priced at 47¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 46¢ bid, 47¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 16 inside Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of June?.

Price history

47¢ current

3¢
25¢50¢75¢100¢
May 12, 2026May 25, 2026

Contract brief

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Crude Oil (CL) futures is equal to or above the listed price between market creation and the final trading day of June 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.

Outcome

↑ $105

Rank

#2 of 16

Leader

↓ $80 57¢

Range

1¢-57¢

Family volume

$14.6M

Identifier

0x86c44550...9bd9

May 25, 2026, 9:38 PM UTC · 19m ago

Implied probability

47¢
Latest venue quote
May 25, 2026, 9:38 PM UTC · 19m ago

Bid

46¢

Ask

47¢

Spread

24h volume

$4K

Family rank

#2 of 16

16 outcomes · Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of June?

Closes

Jun 30, 2026

Family volume

$14.6M

Orderbook snapshot

46 / 47¢

Polymarket
1¢ spread
BidSize
46¢10
45¢332
44¢108
43¢110
42¢50
41¢100
40¢60
39¢105
AskSize
47¢55
48¢2.5K
49¢187
50¢1.4K
51¢2.6K
52¢5.0K
54¢4.0K
55¢10K

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Crude Oil (CL) futures is equal to or above the listed price between market creation and the final trading day of June 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.

Venue

Polymarket

Closes

Jun 30, 2026

Identifier

0x86c44550…9bd9

SF Signal
SF Index
1147.73
Regime
neutral

Event family

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of June.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$14.6M

Outcomes

16

Highest price

↓ $80 57¢

Current share

0%

OutcomePriceVolume24hDepth

↓ $80

polymarket · 0xbaf252e7ac957d6636a6916da51892c9f42e59bfbf808bd4d8e16f194694d2b5

57¢
$377K$12K0.0

↑ $105

polymarket · 0x86c4455035d81c512138b8e38ade7defdb46708d3ee43098cdc8429a7d3b9bd9

47¢
$28K$4K0.0

↑ $110

polymarket · 0x82033ffc908562008e86493dde6695b264bcbb2ac094995629a8e84d58a92940

34¢
$49K$8K0.0

↑ $115

polymarket · 0x46f19d5bedd6d601d597d308d86814245974014d8a108395a7690d7a099cacdd

23¢
$748K$14K0.0

↓ $70

polymarket · 0xe3f8272f4957b7dcc492d988e5c7cd6dbb2f4111cd309571514a280938d617f1

19¢
$471K$7K0.1

↑ $120

polymarket · 0xba8af64c1b08f322ca7f66f3cfdbdfd50c0eae6fc88d2fcf29c30ceb62682421

18¢
$709K$18K0.1

↑ $130

polymarket · 0xa5d0dfc81e6a87faa737df4ca52fae7e18b63d9f7568e364c6c7d8c45fb39e8b

14¢
$643K$9K0.1

↑ $140

polymarket · 0x0443a503a38b90446c8a3826db5ee1323144197ef2b4ed09bcdf545ac104dfcb

8¢
$1.6M$31K0.1

↓ $60

polymarket · 0x404f8cff823a8692b2225d2372429300a73093a0838d614839e626b0d13d501c

7¢
$380K$6K0.3

↑ $150

polymarket · 0xeda0e0633f131b761cbe6c6e5e16ae347c48d9448a08c5826bfc2c794b63758e

5¢
$2.6M$37K0.2

↓ $55

polymarket · 0x9118beb9f9d8462c85b24f3cfb39ccbd244f723e6b381aaf622c66fdc3dcf178

4¢
$262K$3250.5

↓ $52

polymarket · 0x98728d940ba33c8675997663835b21198c92326aa188e8ffc3c07eed7ba85b22

3¢
$157K$285

↑ $200

polymarket · 0x5f879a52e5349db7f66d386ca75f1a9bb608fdd6a738a1582681613730b23281

2¢
$3.9M$24K

↑ $175

polymarket · 0x7ae064ed7f3c9f4d201ce007b05b3a23f8e824170981c4d301f07301d554f451

2¢
$2.4M$16K

↓ $50

polymarket · 0x74ef80070ef90dfac1da8107c7e2f2aee1bf880df88a968a542411553ce30e81

2¢
$139K$0

↓ $40

polymarket · 0xb941af01c632229376fa4d7c994369c90743654bc9a7a36072ec4fbb0bc855cc

1¢
$100K$52

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

1172.7%

IY (No)

922.2%

Adj IY

1148%

CRI

1

RV

1079%

VR

2.17

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

1172.7%
922.2%
Adj IY
1148%
1
RV
1079%
VR
2.17
IAR
1.1/h
Overround
3.0%
LAS
0.02

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.