Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?

The 18¢ price implies only an 18% probability of crude hitting $140 by June 2026, yet the Yes side offers an extraordinary 2247% annualized yield, suggesting significant underpricing relative to the realized volatility of 375%—a classic high-yield opportunity that may reflect low liquidity ($31.2K open interest) and risk aversion rather than fundamental bearishness. The market has risen 29% over seven days (14¢ to 18¢) with modest 24-hour volume of $7.4M, indicating thin trading conditions and potential for sharp repricing if oil fundamentals shift or volatility regime changes. With 74 days to expiration and a neutral regime score, the tight 3¢ spread and cliff risk index of 5 suggest this contract is pricing in a low-probability tail event that could reward contrarian positioning if geopolitical or supply shocks materialize.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Crude Oil (CL) futures is equal to or above the listed price between market creation and the final trading day of June 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.

Indicators

Regime

Trade