Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of June?
Leader sits at 54% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 38%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
↓ $85
Outcomes
9
winner-take-all
Runner-up
38¢
↑ $105
Spread
16pp
contested
24h volume
$152K
liquid
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
24 days
Venue
Polymarket
9 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of June
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of June?: ↑ $130
0xa5d0df…9e8b
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of June?: ↑ $140
0x0443a5…dfcb
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of June?: ↑ $120
0xba8af6…2421
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of June?: ↓ $85
0xa4c71c…17e3
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of June?: ↑ $105
0x86c445…9bd9
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of June?: ↑ $110
0x82033f…2940
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of June?: ↑ $115
0x46f19d…acdd
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of June?: ↓ $80
0xbaf252…d2b5
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of June?: ↓ $70
0xe3f827…17f1
Analysis
This represents a 19% chance that crude oil will fall to $60 per barrel or below by the end of June 2026, roughly two months away. The low probability reflects current market pricing around $75-80 per barrel, which would require a significant decline to reach the target. Oil prices are primarily driven by supply disruptions, geopolitical tensions, and global demand forecasts. The main catalysts affecting this outcome include OPEC production decisions, U.S. economic data signaling recession risk, and any major supply shocks. Near-term inventory reports and central bank policy guidance will provide key signals about demand strength. The related contracts show markets price a $75 floor as highly likely (76¢) while larger declines face steeper odds, suggesting traders expect relative price stability or strength over the next 60 days.
- ›Crude oil must decline approximately 15-20% from typical current levels to reach $60, a move requiring either sustained demand destruction or unexpected supply surge
- ›OPEC+ production decisions and compliance rates directly influence supply-side constraints; any announced cuts support higher prices while increased output enables declines
- ›U.S. economic growth data, manufacturing reports, and employment figures over May-June will signal demand trajectory; recession signals would increase downside probability
- ›Geopolitical developments in major producing regions (Middle East, Russia-Ukraine) can trigger supply shocks that counteract demand-driven price pressure
- ›Implied volatility reflected in contract pricing shows $75 is priced as highly probable by end of June, limiting room for sharp declines without fundamental deterioration
What moved the line
- Jun 1↑ $105↑13pp29→42¢ · Polymarket
- May 30↓ $80↓13pp61→48¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 3↓ $85↓9pp62→53¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 3↑ $105↑9pp35→44¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 1↓ $80↓9pp45→36¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in oil
- Will the WTI front-month settle oil price be Between 85.00 and 85.99 on Apr 24, 2026$96.00 to $96.99last 38% · 0d
- Will the brent crude oil close price be above 85.99 USD/Bbl on Apr 24, 2026 at 5pm EDTabove $91.99last 97% · 0d
- What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in May 2026?: ↑ $110last 49% · 3d
- Will average **gas prices** be above $3.920last 85% · 5d
- Will average **gas prices** be above $4.60last 97% · 5d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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Related reading
Oil Markets Eye $105 as Iran Risk Premium Holds
Crude oil continues to rally (USO +1.25%) as the probability of WTI hitting $105 by end of June rose 1¢ to 40¢. The decline in the 'oil below $85' contract by 7¢ signals traders are pricing out a near-term resolution to supply concerns.
Oil Markets Reprice as Hormuz Blockade Endgame Nears
WTI crude contracts are seeing aggressive repricing as the probability of the US lifting the Hormuz blockade by June 30 rises to 70%, up 8¢. The 'WTI ↓ $85' May contract collapsed 43¢, while '↓ $80' fell 5¢. Traders are pricing in a potential supply surge if the blockade ends, but the Iran deal timeline remains uncertain, creating volatility.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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