Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of June?
Leader sits at 88% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 39%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
↓ $75
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
39¢
↓ $70
Spread
49pp
contested
24h volume
$139K
liquid
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
11 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of June
Analysis
This represents a 19% chance that crude oil will fall to $60 per barrel or below by the end of June 2026, roughly two months away. The low probability reflects current market pricing around $75-80 per barrel, which would require a significant decline to reach the target. Oil prices are primarily driven by supply disruptions, geopolitical tensions, and global demand forecasts. The main catalysts affecting this outcome include OPEC production decisions, U.S. economic data signaling recession risk, and any major supply shocks. Near-term inventory reports and central bank policy guidance will provide key signals about demand strength. The related contracts show markets price a $75 floor as highly likely (76¢) while larger declines face steeper odds, suggesting traders expect relative price stability or strength over the next 60 days.
- ›Crude oil must decline approximately 15-20% from typical current levels to reach $60, a move requiring either sustained demand destruction or unexpected supply surge
- ›OPEC+ production decisions and compliance rates directly influence supply-side constraints; any announced cuts support higher prices while increased output enables declines
- ›U.S. economic growth data, manufacturing reports, and employment figures over May-June will signal demand trajectory; recession signals would increase downside probability
- ›Geopolitical developments in major producing regions (Middle East, Russia-Ukraine) can trigger supply shocks that counteract demand-driven price pressure
- ›Implied volatility reflected in contract pricing shows $75 is priced as highly probable by end of June, limiting room for sharp declines without fundamental deterioration
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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