Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?

The market is pricing a 45% probability of crude oil reaching $115 by end-June 2026, but the extraordinarily high realized volatility of 985% and implied yield of 649% suggest significant uncertainty or potential mispricing, especially given the neutral regime and recent 7-point price decline from 52¢ to 45¢ over seven days. With 72 days to expiry and relatively thin liquidity ($35.6K open interest against $11K daily volume), the 2¢ spread is tight, though the 3.15 volatility ratio and 3.6 info arrivals per hour indicate active repricing as new data emerges. The cliff risk index of 1 suggests this is a binary outcome with minimal gradation, making the current 45¢ price potentially vulnerable to sharp moves if crude fundamentals shift materially.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Crude Oil (CL) futures is equal to or above the listed price between market creation and the final trading day of June 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.

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