Will Democratic win the House race for NM-01?
This contract is priced at 94¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 92¢ bid, 94¢ ask, 2¢ spread.
Implied probability
Event outcomes
2
Family volume
$178
Best sibling
Republican party 5¢
Ticker
KXHOUSERACE-NM01-26-D
Market snapshot
Democratic party in market context.
This page tracks the Kalshi contract for Will Democratic win the House race for NM-01?. The displayed quote is 94¢ from the latest venue quote. The cached market record reports 24h volume of $178. In the KXHOUSERACE-NM01-26 family, this outcome ranks #1 of 2 by current quote across 2 sibling outcomes. The indicator bundle was refreshed May 11, 2026, 9:23 PM UTC.
Outcome
Democratic party
Family rank
#1 of 2
Venue
Kalshi
Current quote
94¢
Quote source
Latest venue quote
Timing
Listed until Nov 3, 2027
24h volume
$178
Family context
2 outcomes · KXHOUSERACE-NM01-26
Quote range
5¢-92¢
Family leader
Democratic party 92¢
Last updated
May 11, 2026, 9:23 PM UTC · 8m ago
Venue identifier: KXHOUSERACE-NM01-26-D. Family volume: $178.
Price history
94¢ current
+2¢Orderbook snapshot
92 / 94¢
Contract terms
Resolution, venue, and identifiers.
Resolution rules
If the House member sworn in for NM-01 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Identifier
KXHOUSERACE-NM01-26-D
Event family
KXHOUSERACE-NM01-26.
This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.
Total volume
$178
Outcomes
2
Highest price
Democratic party 92¢
Current share
100%
Browse this series
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
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Event Probability API
Read 94% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.