Will Donald Trump issue any official announcement (e.g., Truth Social post) on naming his nominee for Attorney General before Sep 1, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 72% probability that Will Donald Trump issue any official announcement (e.g., Truth Social post) on naming his nominee for Attorney Genera.... This contract trades at 72¢ on Kalshi, closing September 1, 2026. This market is pricing in a very high probability (83%) that Trump will announce an AG nominee before September 2026, yet shows virtually no trading activity ($0 in 24h volume) with minimal liquidity ($118.54 open interest), suggesting limited conviction despite the steep price.
Analysis
This market is pricing in a very high probability (83%) that Trump will announce an AG nominee before September 2026, yet shows virtually no trading activity ($0 in 24h volume) with minimal liquidity ($118.54 open interest), suggesting limited conviction despite the steep price. The extreme 798% implied yield on the "No" side indicates severe mispricing or that traders view the outcome as nearly certain, though the recent 5¢ price decline from 80¢ hints at some emerging skepticism about the timeline. With 137 days to expiry and a 7¢ spread, this appears to be a low-conviction market where the high price may reflect base rates rather than active trading.
Resolution rules
If Donald Trump has made any official announcement (e.g., Truth Social post) naming his nominee for Attorney General before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXAGANNOUNCE-26-SEP01 yes 100