Will Donald Trump issue any official announcement (e.g., Truth Social post) on naming his nominee for Labor Secretary before May 1, 2026
Leader sits at 94% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 85%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before Sep 1, 2026
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
85¢
Before Aug 1, 2026
Spread
9pp
contested
24h volume
$213
thin orderbook
Closes
Sep 1, 2026
84 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Donald Trump issue any official announcement (e.g., Truth Social post) on naming his nominee for Attorney General before
Will Donald Trump issue any official announcement (e.g., Truth Social post) on naming his nominee for Attorney General before Jul 1, 2026?: Before Jul 1, 2026
KXAGANNOUNCE-26-JUL01
Will Donald Trump issue any official announcement (e.g., Truth Social post) on naming his nominee for Attorney General before Sep 1, 2026?: Before Sep 1, 2026
KXAGANNOUNCE-26-SEP01
Will Donald Trump issue any official announcement (e.g., Truth Social post) on naming his nominee for Attorney General before Aug 1, 2026?: Before Aug 1, 2026
KXAGANNOUNCE-26-AUG01
What moved the line
- Jun 6Before Jul 1, 2026↓9pp91→82¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 7Before Jul 1, 2026↓5pp82→77¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 6Before Aug 1, 2026↓5pp96→91¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 8Before Jul 1, 2026↑4pp77→81¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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