Will Donald Trump issue any official announcement (e.g., Truth Social post) on naming his nominee for Attorney General before Apr 24, 2026
Leader sits at 96% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 94%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before Jan 1, 2027
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
94¢
Before Sep 1, 2026
Spread
2pp
contested
24h volume
$213
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
205 days
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Donald Trump issue any official announcement (e.g., Truth Social post) on naming his nominee for Attorney General before
Will Donald Trump issue any official announcement (e.g., Truth Social post) on naming his nominee for Attorney General before Jul 1, 2026?: Before Jul 1, 2026
KXAGANNOUNCE-26-JUL01
Will Donald Trump issue any official announcement (e.g., Truth Social post) on naming his nominee for Attorney General before Sep 1, 2026?: Before Sep 1, 2026
KXAGANNOUNCE-26-SEP01
Will Donald Trump issue any official announcement (e.g., Truth Social post) on naming his nominee for Attorney General before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027
KXAGANNOUNCE-26-27JAN01
Will Donald Trump issue any official announcement (e.g., Truth Social post) on naming his nominee for Attorney General before Aug 1, 2026?: Before Aug 1, 2026
KXAGANNOUNCE-26-AUG01
Analysis
This question asks whether Trump will publicly announce his Attorney General nominee before April 24, 2026—a date that has already passed as of today. The 39% probability reflects the aggregated belief across prediction markets, with a notable 18-percentage-point gap between venues suggesting uncertainty about contract resolution or differing interpretations of what counts as an 'official announcement.' The primary driver of the moderate probability is the ambiguity around timing and format: whether such an announcement has already occurred, whether pending nominations satisfy the criteria, or whether it remains forthcoming. The cross-venue disagreement indicates market participants are evaluating the same information differently, possibly due to different assumptions about resolution criteria or access to Trump announcements across platforms like Truth Social. Key factors include the specific definition of 'official announcement,' whether any prior statements qualify, and the historical pace of cabinet nominee announcements in Trump administrations.
- ›The resolution date (April 24, 2026) is in the past relative to today's date (April 27, 2026), suggesting this contract may already be determinable or recently resolved
- ›An 18-percentage-point gap between Polymarket (56%) and Kalshi (38%) indicates disagreement about whether qualifying announcements have occurred or how to interpret existing statements
- ›Historical precedent shows Trump typically announces major cabinet positions relatively quickly after taking office, but timing varies by role and political circumstances
- ›The definition of 'official announcement' on platforms like Truth Social versus other channels may be subject to interpretation disputes during contract resolution
- ›The related contract asking about nominations before July 1, 2026 trades at 56¢, suggesting market participants expect such an announcement within a wider timeframe
What moved the line
- Jun 6Before Jul 1, 2026↓9pp91→82¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 7Before Jul 1, 2026↓5pp82→77¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 6Before Aug 1, 2026↓5pp96→91¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 8Before Jul 1, 2026↑4pp77→81¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in trump
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- Will Donald Trump issue any official announcement (e.g., Truth Social post) on naming his nominee for Labor Secretary before May 1, 2026last 94% · 4d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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